S&P 500 at record high as EUR/GBP dips and silver price tries to recover

Macro update

Asian equities edge higher despite geopolitical uncertainty: MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan gained 0.4% after a volatile session, as enthusiasm surrounding AI-related stocks helped offset concerns about the stability of the Middle East ceasefire. Strength in Chinese and Hong Kong markets provided support for the broader regional benchmark.

Nikkei pulls back from record levels: Japan’s benchmark fell 1.46% after reaching a fresh all-time high, with investors turning more cautious amid uncertainty surrounding Middle East negotiations and higher oil prices. AI-focused stocks, including SoftBank and Fujikura, were among the notable decliners.

Oil eases as traders assess conflicting developments: Brent crude slipped to $93.50 per barrel after comments suggesting US-Iran discussions remain ongoing. However, reports that Tehran had paused indirect negotiations continued to cloud the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz and global energy supplies.

Dollar remains rangebound: The dollar index was little changed as markets awaited clearer signs of progress in ceasefire negotiations. Meanwhile, the yen weakened toward 159 per dollar, renewing speculation that Japanese authorities could intervene in currency markets.

South Korean markets and inflation draw attention: The Kospi retreated from record highs after sharp swings in major technology names such as Samsung and SK Hynix. At the same time, South Korean inflation accelerated to its highest level in more than two years, strengthening expectations of an interest rate increase in the coming months.

Anthropic moves toward a public listing: AI company Anthropic has confidentially filed for a US initial public offering, moving ahead of rival OpenAI in the race to reach public markets. The company’s valuation has climbed sharply following a major funding round completed in late May.

S&P 500 trades in record highs

This week the S&P 500 hit another fresh record at 7,617, above which beckons a 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 7,722.

The March-to-May uptrend line at 7,586 may offer support, as may the 28 May high at 7,568.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 27 May low at 7,500

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 19 May low at 7,334

S&P 500 daily candlestick chart

EUR/GBP tries to find support

EUR/GBP is trying to level out above Monday's £0.8638 low and revisit last week's £0.8681 high. If exceeded, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8701 and the May peak at £0.8730 may eventually be reached.

A slip through this week's £0.8638 low may lead to the £0.8630-to-£0.8612 support zone being revisited.

Short-term outlook: neutral while above the 19 March £0.8612 low

Medium-term outlook: neutral while trading between its March £0.8612-to-£0.8789 extremes

EUR/GBP daily candlestick chart

Silver recovers

The price of Silver continues to range trade and is currently heading towards its 19-to-25 May highs at $78.8260-to-$78.8949. If overcome, the April peak at $83.0555 may be reached next.

Support sits between Monday's $73.8490 low and the 19 May low at $73.0919. Further down lies the late May trough at $71.7920. While it and the late April low at $70.8656 underpin, the March-to-June recovery phase is deemed to stay intact.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 28 May low at $71.7920

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a slight bullish bias while above the 29 April low at $70.8656

Sliver daily candlestick chart