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Nasdaq 100 trades in record highs despite rising Brent crude prices while USD/JPY is sidelined
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it trades in record highs despite rising Brent crude prices and while USD/JPY is sidelined.
Macro update
US equities steady: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged up to fresh record closes, while the Dow dipped slightly in quiet trading as investors consolidated recent gains.
Earnings in focus: The first-quarter reporting season is gaining momentum, with 81% of S&P 500 companies beating estimates and full-year growth expectations rising to 16.1%, ahead of key US tech results this week.
Cautious macro backdrop: Markets are awaiting the Federal Reserve decision, with rates expected to remain on hold, as investors look for guidance on inflation risks linked to elevated energy prices.
Geopolitics unresolved: US-Iran tensions remain at an impasse, with disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz keeping oil above $100 and adding uncertainty to the global growth outlook.
Asia mixed after BOJ: The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75%, but a split vote highlighted rising inflation concerns, supporting the yen while Japanese equities pulled back from record highs.
Oil extends gains: Brent crude climbed towards $104 as stalled diplomacy and restricted tanker flows through Hormuz kept supply tight, reinforcing an upward bias in energy markets.
Nasdaq 100 trades in record highs
The Nasdaq 100 continues its swift advance towards the 261.8% Fibonacci extension at 28,860 and will be expected to do so while remaining above its 21 April low at 26,405 on a daily chart closing basis.
Minor support above this level sits at the 23 April low at 27,008.
Short-term outlook: bullish, targeting new record highs while above 26,405
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 7 April low at 23,780
Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart
USD/JPY sideways trades
USD/JPY continues to range trade in low volatility below the ¥159.84-to-¥159.86 recent highs but above its mid-April ¥157.59 low and the ¥157.53-to-¥157.51 mid-March-to-April lows.
Above ¥159.86 lie the ¥159.90 mid-March high and the ¥160.03 early April peak.
Short-term outlook: neutral outlook while below the 7 April ¥160.03 high but above the 19 March low at ¥157.51
Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above the 19 March low at ¥157.51
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Brent crude trades above $100 mark
Brent crude closed its early April gap and continues to rise towards the $105 region. Above it resistance may be found between the late March-to-early April highs at $108.41-to-$108.88.
Minor support may be found around the 23 April $101.91 high ahead of the 13 April high at $99.74.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 24 April $97.81 low
Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above the 17 April low at $84.20 but below the 31 March $108.88 high
Brent crude daily candlestick chart
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