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Nasdaq 100 rises as USD/JPY, Brent crude stall
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it rises on hopes of de-escalation while USD/JPY, Brent crude rallies stall.
Macro update
Asian shares rebound sharply:
Regional equities rallied as risk appetite recovered after the previous session’s sell-off, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index ex-Japan climbing 3.9%.
South Korea leads gains:
The KOSPI jumped 11.2%, rebounding from a historic drop, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.5% following the recovery on Wall Street.
US stocks bounce back:
The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.29%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.78% and the Dow Jones added 0.49% as investors returned to technology shares.
Middle East conflict escalates:
Iran launched new missile strikes on Israel while the US Senate endorsed President Donald Trump’s military campaign, underscoring the risk of a prolonged conflict.
Oil and gold rise on supply concerns:
Brent crude oil moved above $84 and US crude oil approached $78 as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz threatened energy supplies, while gold edged higher on safe-haven demand.
China sets lower growth target:
Beijing announced a 2026 growth goal of 4.5% - 5% and outlined measures to boost innovation and domestic consumption under its new five-year plan.
Nasdaq 100 recovers
The Nasdaq 100 has swiftly recovered from its early March 24,316 three-month low and has so far risen to 25,179. If bettered, the 11-to-25 February highs at 25,344 - 25,382 will be back in the frame but may, at least short-term, act as resistance.
Minor support may be found in the 25,086 - 20,057 region.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 4 March 24,796 low.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral while above the 3 March low at 24,316; failure there would turn the forecast bearish.
Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart
USD/JPY struggles at resistance
USD/JPY is seen coming off this week's ¥157.97 six-week high, made marginally above its ¥157.72 February high. A break above these levels may lead to the January highs at ¥159.22 - ¥159.45 being revisited.
Minor support is seen in the ¥156.82 - ¥156.73 region as well as at the early January ¥156.12 low.
Short-term outlook:
Toppish while below the 3 March ¥157.97 high, a rise above which would change our outlook to a bullish one.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral with a bullish bias while above the ¥152.10 January low.
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Brent in holding pattern
The sharp advance in the Brent crude oil price has so far taken it to this week's $84.26 1 1/2 year high. If exceeded, the November 2023 to May 2024 highs at $84.49 - $84.65 are likely to also be bettered with the February-to-March 2023 peaks at $86.50 - $86.65 being eyed.
Minor support may be spotted between the 2 March high and the 4 March low at $79.83 - $79.38.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 2 March $75.56 low.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 26 February low at $69.12.
Brent crude daily candlestick chart
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