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Nasdaq 100 resumes ascent while EUR/USD, WTI bang against resistance
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it resumes its ascent while EUR/USD, WTI range trade below resistance.
Macro update
Wall Street closes muted after jobs data:
The Dow Jones fell 0.13%, the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.16% and the S&P 500 finished flat as stronger-than-expected January payrolls reduced the urgency for near-term Fed rate cuts.
Rate-cut expectations trimmed:
Unemployment fell to 4.3% and hiring strengthened, prompting traders to scale back easing bets, with the probability of a June hold rising to 41% even as at least one 25bp cut remains priced in.
Sector rotation continues:
Energy led gains with a 2.6% rise and consumer staples added 1.4%, while financials and communications services each dropped more than 1% amid pressure on rate-sensitive and growth stocks.
Tech diverges amid AI concerns:
Chipmakers rallied, lifting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 2.3%, but software stocks slid 2.6%, with Microsoft down 2.2% and Alphabet off 2.4% as disruption fears resurfaced.
Brokerages and healthcare weigh on sentiment:
Robinhood tumbled 8.9% after missing revenue forecasts, while Charles Schwab and Ameriprise fell more than 3%. Moderna dropped 3.5% after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) declined to review its flu vaccine, while Generac surged 17.9% on results.
Nikkei tops 58,000 in ‘triple rally’:
Japan’s benchmark hit a record high as equities, the yen and long-dated JGBs rose together following Prime Minister Takaichi’s election win, with the yen touching a two-week high of ¥152.28 per United States (US) dollar.
Nasdaq 100 resumes its ascent
The Nasdaq 100 saw a slight wobble on Wednesday but as long as it remains above Wednesday's 24,980 low, it is expected to rise towards the 25,500 region and above.
Only a fall through 24,980 and the 20 January low at 24,954 would be bearish and may lead to the December and February lows at 24,648 - 24,455 being revisited.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 11 February 24,980 low.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 5 February low at 24,455.
Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart
EUR/USD continues to range trade
EUR/USD continues to sideways trade between its early February $1.1980 highs and last week's $1.1766 low.
A rise above the $1.1928 high - which capped the upside for all of this week - would likely engage the $1.2000 region.
Were a slip through the uptrend line at $1.1823 to be seen, last week's low at $1.1766 may be back on the cards.
Short-term outlook:
Neutral with a bullish bias while above $1.1766, targeting the $1.2000 region.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above $1.1573.
EUR/USD daily candlestick chart
WTI capped by resistance
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil's 2026 advance is grappling with resistance between the late January and this week's highs at $65.83 - $66.48. If overcome, the $70.00 region would be next in line.
Support is seen along the 2026 uptrend line at $63.33.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above $61.12.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 20 January low at $58.53.
WTI daily candlestick chart
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