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Nasdaq 100, EUR/USD and WTI near technical resistance zones
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100, EUR/USD and WTI as they near technical resistance areas.
Macro update
Gold surges to fresh record:
Safe-haven demand and a softer United States (US) dollar lifted gold above $5000 an ounce for the first time, while silver jumped more than 4%, extending its strong rally this month.
Yen volatility unsettles markets:
The Japanese yen climbed to a 2 1/2 month high near ¥154 per dollar after sharp swings on Friday, keeping investors alert to the risk of coordinated US–Japan intervention.
Intervention chatter drives repositioning:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York rate checks and signs of US–Japan coordination prompted traders to unwind short yen positions, lifting the currency about 3% from Friday’s lows.
Dollar weakens across the board:
The dollar index slid to a four-month low, fuelling gains across major and Asian currencies, including a roughly 1.5% rise in the Korean won.
Equities come under pressure:
A firmer yen weighed on Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 falling nearly 2%, while US and European futures edged lower as risk appetite cooled.
Fed meeting in focus:
Policymakers are expected to leave rates unchanged this week, but markets are watching the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) guidance closely amid political pressure and roughly 50bp of cuts priced in for the year.
Nasdaq 100 stalls below resistance
The Nasdaq 100 so far remains below last week's 2 1/2 month high at 25,873 amid heightened tariff and geopolitical tensions. If bettered, the late October peak at 26,182 would be back in sight.
Minor support may be seen around the 8 January high at 25,400 and also the mid-January low at 25,266.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 20 January 24,954 low.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 17 December low at 24,468.
Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart
EUR/USD trades in 4-month highs
EUR/USD's swift rally from its 19 January $1.1573 low is gunning for its mid-September $1.1919 high, a rise above which would target the psychological $1.2000 region and September 2017 high at $1.2011.
Potential minor slips may find support around the $1.1830 July peak and the 23 September high at $1.1820.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above $1.1670, targeting the $1.2000 region.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above $1.1573, eyeing the $1.2000 area.
EUR/USD daily candlestick chart
WTI nears resistance
West Texas Intermediate's (WTI) rapid, geopolitically driven, rally from its $55.76 per barrel early January low is getting ever closer to the $62.09 - $62.59 key resistance area which is expected to cap. If not, the 8 October high at $62.92 might be reached as well.
Potential slips may find support in the $60.89 - $60.50 support area. Further down lies minor support around the $59.97 early December high.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above $58.53, targeting the $62.09 - 62.59 resistance zone which is expected to cap.
Medium-term outlook:
neutral with a bullish bias while range trading between $62.59 and $55.76; a daily chart close above $62.59 would change our outlook to a bullish one.
WTI daily candlestick chart
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