Look Ahead 26/9/23: US consumer confidence; oil; ASOS; Costco
The US economy swings back into focus with the release of consumer confidence and home sales data. As oil prices creep north, watch out for API crude oil investors. Plus, Costco and ASOS kick off a big week for retail.
Eyes wide open for US economy
Hello, I'm Angeline Ong, and welcome to your Look Ahead to Tuesday, 26 September 2023. Economic news likely to remain in focus as we wait on the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, consumer confidence numbers, and also new home sales out of the United States.
It's a really interesting time for US assets because we started off September on a high note, but that's since waned, and we've seen stocks come off as well as the dollar.
The dollar has been getting back up to where it was recently. However, we are seeing some faltering there at around the $10.426 level. It has broken through that, but perhaps it might fall back down if volumes do not hold.
Much of this coming around the time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) said it would keep the door open to perhaps another hike this year.
However, it has to be said, if I show you the NASDAQ and also the US 100, there has been a lot of change since the start of this month, and we're seeing that the S&P 500 and also the NASDAQ come off the initial sort of enthusiasm earlier this month.
Let's check on the NASDAQ for you, which is also called the Tech 100 on the IG platform. As you can see there, that's a daily chart, and as I mentioned, the enthusiasm that we saw earlier in September towards the back half of August has come off the boil, and we are seeing the NASDAQ approaching the $14,500 level.
This all coming as benchmark Treasury yields hit multi-year highs amid the Fed's hawkish stance. Also, the other big thing that we are watching for you, of course, rising oil prices, hedge funds piling back into the oil rally after boosting their bets on WTI accrued to the highest since February 2022.
WTI has been climbing steeply since June
Here's a look at WTI for you on a daily basis, and as you can see there, it has been a strong march upwards since that June period, 30% rise to be exact, and that is partly down to the supply side after curbs from Saudi Arabia and Russia.
And also bright outlooks in two of the biggest economies in the world, the United States and also China. However, watch out for plenty of news coming out of the oil market this week, not to mention Russia last week announcing a temporary ban on diesel and gasoline exports whilst US crude stockpiles fell again.
On the corporate front, we still have a few names of note. We've got the trading statement from ASOS, four-year earnings from Ferguson, and also our first-year results from Argo Bar. Also in the US, it's going to be a big week for retail.
Costa sails over cost-of-living crisis
We've got Costco wholesale out with fourth-quarter earnings. Costco, a really interesting one to watch because it is seen as one of the few names that has somewhat ridden the cost-of-living crisis quite well.
Oppenheimer, back a few months ago, said they were going to bump up the price target on Costco to $630 from $575 because they think that Costco is well-positioned to drive a in the coming quarters and also to gain market share, even though the sector is still facing a real challenge when it comes to discretionary retail buys.
That's it for now. Do tune in for more analysis on at IG.com and @Angeline Ong on Twitter. Of course, we've got Beat the Street at 1.30pm and Early Morning Call, which counts down to the European market open every day at 7.30am. This is IGTV.
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