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CFDs are complex instruments. 72% of retail client accounts lose money when trading CFDs, with this investment provider. You can lose your money rapidly due to leverage. Please ensure you understand how this product works and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing money.

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP are heading back down again while AUD/USD tries to recover

​​Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD amid UK unemployment data and RBA April minutes.

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​​​EUR/USD weighs on March-to-April uptrend line

​Last week’s EUR/USD 13-month high at $1.1075, due to diminishing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike probabilities following much weaker-than-expected as US retail sales, took the cross down to its March-to-April uptrend line at $1.0938 which is currently being tested.

​A tumble through it and to below Monday’s $1.091 low would likely engage the $1.0832 to $1.0804 mid-February and 10 April lows which represent significant support for the recent uptrend.

​Minor resistance may be encountered around the $1.0929 late-March high and also at the $1.0973 early April high. Only a rise above the latter level would put the minor psychological $1.10 mark and the $1.1033 February peak back on the cards. Further up sit last week’s peak at $1.1075, ahead of the January 2022 low and early-March 2022 high at $1.1121 to $1.1122.

EUR/USD chart Source: IT-Finance.com
EUR/USD chart Source: IT-Finance.com

​EUR/GBP has been rejected by its £0.8865 late-March high

EUR/GBP's rejection by its late-March high at £0.8865 is continuing with the cross expected to slide further still as UK unemployment data comes in slightly worse-than-expected at 3.8% (versus 3.7%) and the UK claimant count change at a much higher-than-expected 28.2K (versus -11.2K in January) with average hourly earnings rising by 5.9% in February instead of an expected 5.1%, pointing towards the possibility of another rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) being seen.

​The currency pair thus trades back below its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8831 and may drop further towards the £0.88 mark while the 13 April high at £0.8838 caps.

EUR/GBP chart Source: IT-Finance.com
EUR/GBP chart Source: IT-Finance.com

​AUD/USD recovers as Reserve Bank of Australia accesses outlook

AUD/USD is seen to recover from Monday’s $0.6682 low as the Reserve Bank of Australia ((RBA) minutes showed that it held the cash rate steady at 3.6% during its April meeting as it wished to account for policy lags but that it would resume tightening should this be required.

​This boosted the Australian dollar and led it back towards the 200-day SMA at $0.6744, above which the 55-day SMA can be found at $0.6774. The area between the two moving averages may cap any further upside on Tuesday. Should this not be the case, last week’s high at $0.6806 should do so.

​A continuation of the recent sell-off and fall through this week’s low at $0.6682 would push the October-to-April uptrend line at $0.6642 back to the fore. Below it the 10 April low can be seen at $0.662.

AUD/USD chart Source: IT-Finance.com
AUD/USD chart Source: IT-Finance.com

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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