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Dow tests resistance as EUR/JPY and US natural gas futures slip
Technical analysis of the Dow as it tests resistance while EUR/JPY and US natural gas futures slide.
Macro update
Japan equities rebound:
The Nikkei 225 surged 2.9% and the Topix climbed 2.5%, ending a four-day losing streak as easing oil concerns improved sentiment.
Tech stocks lead gains:
Semiconductor and AI-related shares rallied, with Advantest up 6.7% and SoftBank advancing 5.8% amid renewed risk appetite.
Oil pullback supports markets:
Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped more than $2 following an Iraq-Kurdistan export agreement, although prices remain elevated versus a month ago.
Currency moves reflect risk shift:
The US dollar weakened for a third straight session, while the Japanese yen and euro strengthened as the oil rally paused and investors rotated away from safe havens.
Central banks in focus:
The Federal Reserve (Fed) decision is due later today, with the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) to follow, all expected to keep rates unchanged as markets monitor inflation signals.
Geopolitics still dominant:
Middle East tensions continue to keep oil elevated and gold near record highs, with ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz sustaining supply concerns.
Dow Jones tries to break out of downtrend channel
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trying to break out of its February to March downtrend channel with a rise above Tuesday's 47,428 high potentially leading to the 48,220 - 48,428 resistance area being revisited.
Minor support sits between the 6 to 17 March lows at 47,009 - 46,976.
Short-term outlook:
Neutral with a bullish stance while above the 18 March 46,976 low.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral while above the 13 March 46,495 low, failure there would likely lead to the 46,000 - 45,452 support zone being eyed.
Dow Jones daily candlestick chart
EUR/JPY capped by resistance line
EUR/JPY is being capped by its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and its February to March resistance line around ¥183.55 with the 19 February high at ¥183.15 being revisited.
Further sideways trading between the recent ¥184.07 - ¥181.88 boundaries remains at hand.
Short-term outlook:
Sidelined while above the 16 March low at ¥181.88 and the 11 March high at ¥184.07.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral with a bullish bias while above the 12 February low at ¥180.81 but below the ¥186.87 January peak.
EUR/JPY daily candlestick chart
US natural gas futures prices slip
US natural gas futures continue to drift lower and are in the process of testing the mid-January low at 272.5 below which minor support may be found in the mid-February-to-early March region at 268.2 - 265.9.
Further down lies more significant support at the current 253.3 March trough.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 13 March high at 307.9.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral with a bearish bias while below the 9 March high at 322.9.
US natural gas daily candlestick chart
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