Bitcoin sell-off deepens: record ETF outflows, Strategy sale and Fed risk

Bitcoin at two-month lows: sell-off pushes below $67,000

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $70,000 on Tuesday for the first time since April, extending a decline that has erased roughly 47% from its October 2025 all-time high near $126,200. Three forces are compounding selling pressure heading into June: a record institutional outflow streak from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a symbolic shift from the market's most prominent corporate holder, and a geopolitical overhang with no clear resolution timeline.

Record ETF outflows: 12-day redemption streak tops $3.5 billion

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) have recorded 12 consecutive days of net outflows since 15 May, shedding a cumulative $3.58 billion — the longest redemption streak since the product category launched in January 2024, according to CoinGlass. BlackRock's IBIT saw approximately $528 million in single-day withdrawals on 27 May, its second-largest daily outflow on record. First-quarter 13F filings also revealed that Jane Street cut its Bitcoin ETF holdings by roughly 70% — rotating some capital into Ether ETFs — while Goldman Sachs trimmed its position by 10%.

Historical patterns suggest sustained redemption streaks have tended to precede price bottoms, as seen ahead of Bitcoin's recoveries following last March's correction and the February sell-off. Whether the current streak marks capitulation or structural de-risking will likely depend on macro and geopolitical developments over the next fortnight.

Strategy's first Bitcoin sale since 2022: a symbolic breach

Strategy disclosed in a Form 8-K filing on 1 June that it sold 32 Bitcoin between 26 and 31 May at an average of $77,135, raising approximately $2.5 million — its first Bitcoin sale since December 2022 — to fund preferred stock distributions as its market net asset value (mNAV) premium has narrowed.

At less than 0.004% of an 843,706-BTC treasury, the disposal is operationally immaterial. The significance is symbolic: Michael Saylor's 'never sell' position has been a cornerstone of Bitcoin's bull narrative, and raises questions about whether Strategy can meet preferred dividend obligations without further sales — a risk that could weigh on Bitcoin prices if disposals become a pattern. MSTR shares fell 9% on Tuesday.

Geopolitics: the swing factor in Bitcoin's near-term trajectory

The trigger for the recent sell-off was the absence of progress in the US-Iran conflict. Nearly $1.6 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated on 2 June as Middle East strikes escalated. The Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of global oil supply transits — keeps an energy-driven inflation risk premium embedded across oil and non-yielding assets. A durable ceasefire or tangible progress towards reopening the waterway represents the most consequential near-term upside catalyst.

Key catalysts: June FOMC decision and digital asset legislation

The Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on 16–17 June for its policy decision, which will include updated economic projections and the dot plot. Any signal that the easing cycle is being deferred would constitute an additional headwind for risk assets.

Separately, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — which would define the jurisdictional boundary between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets — continues its Senate passage. A positive outcome would remove a longstanding regulatory overhang and could act as a meaningful medium-term catalyst.

Price targets: a widening divide between bulls and bears

Wall Street is divided on whether this is a buying opportunity or a structural shift. Standard Chartered has revised its 2026 target down twice to $100,000 — having previously called $300,000 and $150,000 — and has flagged potential capitulation toward $50,000 in a downside scenario. Bernstein maintains a $150,000 year-end target, arguing institutional ownership is structurally changing Bitcoin's market dynamics. At the bullish extreme, Fundstrat's Tom Lee holds a $250,000 target, though his equivalent 2025 call fell materially short.

Options markets also lack consensus. According to Deribit, open interest on $60,000 put options for the 25 December expiry is approximately equivalent to open interest on $120,000 calls — a symmetry that underscores how widely dispersed near-term expectations have become. We believe Bitcoin currently faces more headwinds than tailwinds; a durable recovery will require a meaningful shift in at least one driver: geopolitical de-escalation, a dovish FOMC surprise, or a stabilisation in ETF flows.

Open interests on options expiring on 25 December 2026

Technical analysis: trend break signals further downside risk

Bitcoin's 1 June plunge broke the recovery trend established since early February, confirming a bearish structural shift. Prices now trade below the 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages (MA) with limited overhead support. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 24 — deep in oversold territory — though oversold conditions alone are insufficient to reverse the broader downtrend.

One notable anomaly is Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100, currently at –0.87. This extreme negative reading is unusual given the historically positive relationship, has rarely been sustained, and may signal a realignment ahead. Immediate support sits at $60,072, February's low; resistance is seen around $75,000.

Bitcoin daily price chart

The figures stated in this article are as of 3 June 2026 unless otherwise stated. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.