S&P 500 nears record high as EUR/GBP finds support and silver price rally fades    

Macro update

​Asian equities rally: Regional indices climbed to a six-week high, led by gains in Japan and South Korea, as optimism around potential US-Iran peace talks lifted risk sentiment.

​Wall Street strength carries over: The S&P 500 closed near record levels while the Nasdaq extended its winning streak, supported by softer-than-expected US producer inflation data.

​Oil volatility persists: Brent rebounded towards $95 but remained below $100, as markets weighed hopes for renewed diplomacy against ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

​Supply constraints remain acute: The strait is still largely shut, forcing refiners to source alternative barrels at elevated premiums despite tentative ceasefire conditions.

​Dollar steadies, yields ease: The US dollar stabilised after a seven-day decline, while Treasury yields edged lower as easing inflation concerns and geopolitical optimism supported bonds.

​Gold slips on risk-on mood: Bullion retreated from recent highs as improved sentiment reduced safe-haven demand, although prices remain underpinned by elevated oil-driven inflation risks.

​S&P 500 near record highs

​The S&P 500 is experiencing a FOMO rally despite the situation in the Middle East being far from resolved.

​Immediate upside targets are the 6,979-to-7,002 late January-to-early February highs, a rise above which would make the index hit a new record high.

​Minor support may be spotted between the 23-to-25 February highs at 6,952-to-6,917. 

​Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 13 April low at 6,790

​Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 7 April low at 6,535

​S&P 500 daily candlestick chart

EUR/GBP remains under pressure

EUR/GBP's​ slide from its £0.8742 late March high has taken it to a two-week low at £0.8685, above which it is trying to hold. As long as it does, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8702 is expected to be revisited. Above it lies the 13 April high at £0.8722, a rise above which would indicate that the late March-to-April uptrend has resumed.

​A fall through £0.8685 would push the 20 March high at £0.8679 back to the fore.

​Short-term outlook: neutral with a bearish bias while above the 14 April £0.8685 low

​Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while between the March £0.8613-to-£0.8789 boundaries

EUR/GBP daily candlestick chart

Silver price hits near one-month high

​The price of silverhas been rising from its 23 March low at $61.0065 and has so far risen to $81.0239, close to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $79.1335 which caps. While these levels aren't overcome, the 8 April high at $77.6525 s expected to be revisited and perhaps also the early April $76.4196 peak.

​Were Wednesday's intraday high at $81.0239 to be exceeded, the 17 March high at $88.5542 would be eyed next.

​Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 13 April $72.5945 low

​Medium-term outlook: neutral while above the 23 March low at $61.0065 but below the 2 March high at $96.4255; failure at  $61.0065 would make our forecast bearish

Silver daily candlestick chart