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S&P 500 comes off its record high while EUR/GBP probes support and silver price recovers
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 as it comes off its record high while EUR/GBP nears support and the silver price recovers from Tuesday’s sell-off.
Macro update
Oil steady despite ceasefire extension: Brent held near $93 and WTI around $89 per barrel as prices stabilised following the recent rally, with markets assessing the impact of the US extending its ceasefire with Iran.
Hormuz disruption limits downside: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely halted, keeping around 20% of global energy flows constrained and providing support to oil prices despite easing geopolitical fears.
Uncertainty over peace talks: The ceasefire extension appears unilateral, with no clear agreement from Iran or Israel, leaving the outlook for negotiations and supply risks unresolved.
Equities resilient, risk sentiment holds: US futures moved higher while Asian indices edged lower, with investors largely looking through geopolitical tensions and focusing on prospects for a broader peace deal.
Dollar firm, Fed focus in view: The dollar hovered near a one-week high as Fed nominee Kevin Warsh adopted a slightly hawkish tone and strong US retail sales reinforced economic resilience.
Inventories point to tighter supply: API data showed a 4.5 million barrel draw in US crude stocks alongside declines in fuel inventories, adding underlying support to oil markets.
S&P 500 comes off record high
The S&P 500 has come off last week's 7,147 record high amid uncertainty surrounding the Middle East. Were further downside to be seen, the previous all-time high made in January at 7,002 may be revisited.
While the index stays above Tuesday's 7,050 low, Tuesday's high at 7,137 may be reached, ahead of the 7.147 record high.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 13 April low at 6,790
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 7 April low at 6,535
S&P 500 daily candlestick chart
EUR/GBP under pressure
EUR/GBP is seen gliding lower from last week's £0.8723 high and nears its current April lows at £0.8686-to-£0.8685 which may once more offer support.
If not, the 23 March high at £0.8679 may be reached next.
While support at £0.8686-to-£0.8685 holds, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8702 is expected to be revisited. Above it lies the 13-to-17 April highs at £0.8722-to-£0.8723, a rise above which would indicate that the late March-to-April uptrend has resumed.
Short-term outlook: neutral with a bearish bias while above the 14 April £0.8685 low
Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while between the March £0.8613-to-£0.8789 boundaries
EUR/GBP daily candlestick chart
Silver price bounces off support
The silverprice is seen bouncing off Tuesday's $75.4019 one-week low and tries to reach the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $78.9178. If it and Tuesday's high at $80.2125 were to be exceeded, last week's high at $83.0555 may be reached again.
Were this week's low at $75.4019 to give way, though, the 25 March high at $74.5720 may be revisited.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 21 April $75.4019 low
Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above the 23 March low at $61.0065 but below the 2 March high at $96.4255; failure at $61.0065 would make our forecast bearish
Silver daily candlestick chart
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