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Nasdaq 100 surges as USD/JPY, Brent crude slip
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it rallies while USD/JPY, Brent crude give back recent gains.
Macro update
Markets stabilise on hopes of renewed US-Iran talks: Investors showed cautious optimism after indications that negotiations could resume despite the recent breakdown, lending some support to sentiment.
Oil prices remain elevated but volatile: Crude held near recent highs as supply risks persisted, though prices eased slightly below $100 per barrel on expectations of potential diplomatic progress.
Global equities mixed with tentative rebound: Asian markets advanced on improved sentiment, while broader global indices remained sensitive to geopolitical headlines and energy price movements.
Risk backdrop continues to pressure growth outlook: Elevated energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty are sustaining inflation risks and weighing on global growth expectations.
Bond and currency markets reflect cautious positioning: Safe-haven demand remains evident with the dollar supported, while yields continue to react to shifting inflation expectations.
UK outlook tied to energy and global developments: Higher oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to shape inflation expectations and reinforce a cautious Bank of England policy stance.
Nasdaq 100 probes top of resistance zone
The Nasdaq 100 is in the process of trying to break out of its key resistance band, the top of which ties in with the 11 February high at 25,382.
Above Monday's 25,388 high beckon the 8 January low at 25,400 and the late January high at 25,418 ahead of the early January 25,598 peak.
Support may be found the in the 25,189-to-25,179 region.
Short-term outlook: bullish, targeting new record highs
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 7 April low at 23,780
Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart
USD/JPY slips
USD/JPY is coming off its ¥159.86 Monday high but remains within a sideways trading range.
Support may be found around the 9 March high at ¥158.90 and along its February-to-April support line at ¥158.52.
A rise above ¥159.86 is needed for last week's high at ¥160.03 to be revisited.
Short-term outlook: neutral outlook while below the 7 April ¥160.03 high but above the 19 March low at ¥157.51
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 19 March low at ¥157.51
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Brent crude trades back below $100 mark
The price of Brent crude oil partially closed its 7-to-8 April price gap by rising to $99.74 on Monday before coming off again.
The 23-to-25 March lows at $93.57-to-$92.62 currently offer support, ahead of the 10 April low at $91.68. If slipped through, the 8 April low at $88.79 may be back on the cards.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 13 April $99.74 high
Medium-term outlook: neutral while below the 31 March $108.88 high but above the 8 April low at $88.79
Brent crude daily candlestick chart
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