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FTSE 100, EUR/USD try to find support as WTI rallies
Technical analysis of the FTSE 100, EUR/USD as they try to find support while WTI rallies.
Macro update
Geopolitics weigh on risk sentiment: Asian equities fell and European futures pointed lower as renewed US-Iran strikes in the Gulf undermined a fragile truce and kept investors risk-averse.
Oil remains elevated despite pullback: Brent and WTI eased after recent sharp gains but stayed above $100 per barrel, with disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz maintaining a geopolitical risk premium.
Energy supply concerns persist: US naval escorts have enabled limited shipping flows, but Iranian attacks and damage to regional infrastructure continue to threaten a route carrying roughly 20% of global oil supply.
Safe-haven demand supports dollar: The US dollar strengthened amid geopolitical uncertainty, while gold edged higher and broader market moves remained relatively contained without full escalation.
Yen intervention speculation continues: The yen stabilised after recent sharp gains, with markets watching for further action from Tokyo as authorities defend levels near 160 against the dollar.
Central banks and earnings in focus: The RBA delivered a third rate hike this year, while investors look ahead to US payrolls data and major earnings, with S&P 500 results continuing to beat expectations.
FTSE 100 tries to find support
The FTSE 100 is trying to hold above its March-to-May support line at 10,232, a fall through which would likely engage the late April trough at 10,171.
While this level underpins, though, a recovery towards the April-to-May resistance line at 10,349 may be witnessed, though. Above it resistance may be spotted at the recent daily highs at 10,383-to-10,390. Only if overcome, would a bullish continuation of the April up leg likely be on the cards.
Short-term outlook: consolidating while below the early May high at 10,390 but we would turn bullish on a rise and daily chart close above this level
Medium-term outlook: neutral while above the 29 April low at 10,171 but below the 1 May 10,390 high
FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart
EUR/USD slips
EUR/USD is seen revisiting its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.1676 which currently offers support. If slipped through, the late April lows at $1.1669-to-$1.1655 would likely be back in sight. Were these levels to give way, the 17-to-20 March highs at $1.1648 would be back in the frame.
Resistance may be spotted around the $1.1716 early May low.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 4 May high at $1.1758
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 30 April low at $1.1655, failure there would eye the $1.1648 support level and below
EUR/USD daily candlestick chart
WTI is pointing back up again
Heightened tensions in the Middle East provoked another surge in the price of crude. It recovered from Monday's $99.11 low and rallied to $107.46 within a day. If overcome on Tuesday, the late April high at $110.93 would be back in sight.
Potential slips may find support around the mid-March highs at $102.44-to-$101.67.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 4 May $99.11 low
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 17 April low at $78.97
WTI daily candlestick chart
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