​​​Dow loses upside momentum as EUR/JPY stabilises and US natural gas volatility eases

Macro update

Fed chair speculation rattles markets

Global equities fell and bond yields rose after Donald Trump said he has selected his preferred candidate for the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, with reports pointing to former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. 

Policy outlook repriced

Prediction markets now assign a 92% probability to Warsh’s nomination, with attention on his preference for lower interest rates alongside a smaller Fed balance sheet.

Risk‑off move across Asia

MSCI Asia‑Pacific ex‑Japan slid as much as 1.3% - their steepest one-day drop in a month - led by losses in China and Hong Kong, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell around 0.5%. 

Dollar and yields rebound

The United States (US) dollar index gained 0.3% as investors pared back bearish positions, while the US 10‑year Treasury yield rose about 4 basis points (bp) to 4.27%.

Metals and crypto retreat

Gold dropped 3.7% and silver slid 6% after a volatile session, while Bitcoin fell 2.7% as risk appetite weakened.

Oil eases but caps strong month

Brent crude oil slipped 1.4% from its overnight high but remains up nearly 15% for January – its strongest monthly gain in years – supported by Middle East tensions and supply disruptions.

Dow Jones remains below record high

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to trade below its January record high at 49,616 – 49,633, but above last week’s 48,428 low. While it holds, the medium‑term uptrend remains intact, with the psychological 50,000 region still in sight.

A fall through 48,428 may push the 47,853 – 47,850 lows from mid‑December to early January into focus.

• Short‑term outlook: bullish while above 48,428
• Medium‑term outlook: bullish while above the 2 January low at 47,853, targeting 50,000.

Dow Jones daily candlestick chart

EUR/JPY range trades

EUR/JPY has been sideways trading above its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) for the past week and looks short-term bid with a rise above its  ¥183.78 minor high to be seen and the  ¥184.43 resistance level in sight.

Immediate support sits at the ¥182.64 early‑December high and 8 January low, within the ¥184.92 – ¥184.43 region.

• Short‑term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above ¥181.79
• Medium‑term outlook: neutral while above the 8 January low at ¥181.56.

EUR/JPY daily candlestick chart

Natural gas futures

US ​natural gas futures dropped back to the 350 region and now trade in low volatility.

Immediate upside pressure will likely stay intact, provided that this week's low at 329.1 holds with the 363.3 29 January high providing a possible short-term upside target, followed by the 376.6 late December high.

A fall through 329.1 could lead to the 200-day SMA at 315.2 being reached.

• Short‑term outlook: neutral
• Medium‑term outlook: neutral

Natural gas daily candlestick chart