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Day one: our Australia 200 trade

I talked about long positions on the ASX 200 last week and continue to watch this index in what is a traditionally a good week for the market.

Technically the daily chart looks good and on Friday broke and closed above the November downtrend and momentum and trend indicators are suggesting further upside could be on the cards.

Resistance for the ASX this week could be seen at 5291 (the 61.8% retracement of the October to December sell-off) and a break of this level could suggest the index is ready to make a tilt at the recent high of 5457.

The weekly chart hasn’t printed an outright bullish picture from a momentum perspective, but is starting to show a more compelling picture and will need to see a strong week this week.

The month chart looks strong and looking at the candle formation showed a strong rejection from the low 5000 level. The trend is still higher in multiply moving averages and bodes well for longer-term investors.

The big risk I see this week is Chinese money market rates in what will be a week of thin liquidity.

So I continue to hold a long bias on the market and given the improving trend could see 5300 materialise in the near-term.

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