Commonwealth Bank of Australia HY 2026 earnings preview

When will CBA report its latest earnings?

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is set to report its results for the half-year ending 31 December 2025 on Wednesday, 11 February 2026.

This report comes amidst a complex landscape: banking fundamentals remain resilient, but margin and cost pressures are mounting. The market is bracing for the potential impact of higher interest rates, with approximately 40 basis points (bp) of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hikes now priced in for this year.

FY 2025 highlights

In its full-year (FY) 2025, delivered back in mid-August, CBA posted a solid scorecard. Cash net profit after tax (NPAT) climbed 4% to A$10.25 billion, buoyed by lending growth across home and business segments. The bank’s net interest margin (NIM) held steady at 2.08% (up 9 bp), while loan impairment expenses dropped 9% to A$726 million, demonstrating benign credit conditions.

Operating income rose 5% to A$28.47 billion, though expenses increased by 6% as inflation, tech investments, and staffing costs took their toll. Shareholders were rewarded with a record full-year dividend of A$4.85 per share (fully franked, up 4%) and an extension of the A$1 billion share buyback.

Despite these solid numbers, the market gave CBA the thumbs down. On the day of the release (13 August 2025), it's shares took a 5.41% dive to $169.12.

Investors fixated on the stock's high valuation – trading at approximately 30 times forward earnings, well above local and global peers.  When you are priced for perfection, a result that is merely 'in line' with expectations without a shiny earnings upgrade often feels like a letdown.

The selling pressure was further fuelled by anxieties over margin compression (thanks to fierce competition for deposits), rising operating costs, and a soft spot in retail banking earnings. Essentially, the cautious FY 2026 outlook lacked the positive surprises investors needed to justify paying a premium price.

The sell-off gathered pace on 11 November 2025 following CBA’s first quarter (Q1) 2026 trading update as its shares finished 6.59% lower at $163.40. While the update showed unaudited cash NPAT around A$2.6 billion - up 2% year-on-year (YoY) - driven by strong retail deposit growth and lending expansion, the headwinds were hard to ignore.

• Core earnings of approximately A$3.9 billion missed consensus by about 2%, largely due to unexpected costs, including a NZ$136 million class action settlement
• Operating expenses (excluding one-offs) crept up by 4%, driven by stubborn wage and vendor inflation
• Operating income managed a 3% rise, helped by higher markets income and volume-driven fees
• Crucially, NIM was reported as 'slightly lower', a victim of deposit switching, competition, and shifting cash rate dynamics.

Summary of CBA's FY25 highlights

HY 2026 earnings expectations

As we approach the HY 2026 release, the market is looking for reassurance that the sector remains healthy. Investors want to see solid credit volumes, low bad debts (no signs of loan stress), and a robust capital position.

Margins will be the key battleground. CBA’s NIM may see further pressure from competition, though this could be cushioned by higher rates, volume growth, and potential tailwinds from hedging.

As the only 'Big Four' bank reporting in this cycle, CBA is the bellwether. Its update will likely set the tone for broader financial sentiment, with the market set to scrutinise comments regarding household stress, arrears, dividends, and how the bank is navigating a shifting rate environment.

It is worth noting that CBA heads into this report still trading at a lofty forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 25 times - significantly richer than its peers, which trade in the mid-to-high teens.

Key financials

• Cash NPAT: Approximately A$5.22 billion (up from A$5.12 billion in the prior corresponding period)
• Dividend: A$2.49 (versus A$2.60 in the prior corresponding period)

CBA annual net income chart

Is CBA a buy or a sell?

CBA currently holds a TipRanks Smart Score of '1 underperform’ and is rated as a ‘strong sell’ by all analysts on TipRanks, as of 10 February 2026.

CBA TipRanks Smart Score chart

CBA technical analysis

From the 2023 low at A$86.98, CBA staged a spectacular rally of approximately 120%, peaking at A$192 in late 2025. This surge was fuelled by resilient banking fundamentals, hungry offshore demand, and broader equity market strength.

However, the tide has turned since that A$192 peak, with the stock pulling back around 23.5% to recent lows at A$146.98. While this pullback has the hallmarks of a healthy correction, it is too early to declare the selling over.

If CBA can manage a sustained break above resistance at A$163/A$165 post-earnings, it would suggest a low is in place at A$146.98. This would swing the probabilities back in favour of the bulls, targeting A$170 resistance with the potential to retest the A$192 all-time peak if sentiment improves.

Conversely, a clean break below A$146.98 would open the door for a retest of the A$140.21 low, a level reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at A$139.30.

CBA weekly candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 10 February 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}