Hang Seng Index could tentatively rebound this weekend
The Hang Seng Index closed the week 0.28% up - a third successive day of growth. Will the confidence of officials in the HK economy maintain HSI’s resurgence?
At the close of the final trading session of April, the Hang Seng Index ended with a 4.4% monthly gain. As we’ve edged nearer to the end of April, many Asian markets have moved to the cusp of bullish territory, with the Hang Seng Index rebounding 13.6% from its 23 March low.
Technical analysis: Hang Seng Index back in bullish mode
Out of all eight leading global equity indices, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was the third-best performer on Wednesday. If you were to take a 90-day view of the Hang Seng, the general trend is considerably negative. However, the 30-day window tells a vastly different story, as the price has rebounded considerably.
During Wednesday, the price of the Hang Seng Index peaked at 24786, its highest position since 11 March when lockdowns were beginning to be initiated everywhere, not just the Far East.
Hong Kong ‘highly resilient’ to win the second coronavirus battle
The fundamentals behind the recovery of the Hang Seng Index are that the government remains confident in the city state’s economy. Financial Secretary Paul Chan believes the financial risks to Hong Kong during the coronavirus pandemic are "controllable" and that its finances are "highly resilient".
The Hong Kong government recently approved 100% guaranteed loans to businesses worth over HK$400 million, as it seeks to create stability in the economy and small business community.
Chan said: "The Hong Kong government will continue to maintain the city’s financial stability. This gatekeeping work must be done well to protect national security."
Will the threat of its worst-ever recession create a new resistance point?
There could yet be a sting in the tail for the Hang Seng Index, however. Although traders have taken a positive stance towards the fiscal firefighting of the Hong Kong government, amid the positivity there was a stark warning from Mr Chan, who admitted the city faces the threat of its worst recession on record.
Just two months after his Budget, which saw Chan anticipate GDP shrinking by 1.5%, the Financial Secretary admitted to lawmakers that its economy could be hit far worse than expected, shrinking by up to 7% in 2020.
This would result in the first back-to-back annual contractions for the Hong Kong economy since returning to Chinese sovereignty in 1997.
This sobering analysis is almost certain to keep a lid on a medium-term resurgence for the Hang Seng Index. The way in which the index contracted so sharply at 24786 on Wednesday suggests that this could be a new point of resistance in the weeks ahead.
How to trade the Hang Seng Index this weekend
Whether you feel the Hang Seng Index will rise or fall this weekend, the only platform you can use to open a long (buy) or short (sell) position on after the markets close is IG’s world-class trading platform. Using our CFDs, you can trade the value of the Hang Seng Index during the weekend before the markets reopen on Monday.
If you’d like to trade the Hang Seng Index with IG this weekend, follow these five simple steps:
Create an IG Trading Account or log in to your existing account
Enter ‘Hang Seng Index’ in the search bar and select it
Choose your position size
Click on ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ in the deal ticket
Confirm the trade
What is weekend trading?
Weekend trading gives you access to forex, andindices markets on Saturday and Sunday. So, if news breaks about the ongoing coronavirus pandemic – or central bank measures to ease the strain on global markets are announced – you no longer need to wait until markets open on Monday to trade.
The weekend prices for indices and forex are quoted separately to their weekday counterparts, based on our view of the prospects for that market given client business and news flow. As a result, you can use these markets to hedge against risk on your weekday positions. Weekend indices and forex positions will rollover into regular weekday positions if they are kept open after the Sunday close, with any stops or limits remaining in place.
The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer.
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