FTSE 250 could retest resistance

Price at time of writing – 16,297.

My last update on the FTSE 250 was on 11 February when the mid-cap index stood at 15,910.

At that time I suggested a new buying opportunity had been triggered, and a target price was introduced at 16,687. This opportunity provided nimble traders the chance to profit from a quick 5% upside move. On 3 March this target was fulfilled, with an intraday high of 16,726 recorded. As a result, my recommendation reverts to neutral.

Completion of the move to the 16,687 level has now fulfilled a rise of 133.33% from the influential low that formed in July 2009. For much of 2011 and 2012 the index had stalled at resistance that marked half this rise, and it was the eventual break above the 66.66% line (in December 2012) that allowed me to project ahead to the 16,687 target.

The subsequent pull-back from this month’s high has measured 4.165%. An ability to hold this line bodes well for the FTSE 250, and should allow the index to at least retest 16,687 in the short-term. A break below 16,029 will see the index drop to 15,332.

Recommendation: neutral. Sell short only on a break below 16,029. A rise above 16,687 would trigger further strength to 17,193.

FTSE 250 chart

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