New lease of life for the AUD

Risk currencies have managed to extend their gains against the greenback.

Source: Bloomberg

The AUD has perhaps been one of the more interesting currencies over the past week as it has found some stability. In fact, the local currency has been much stronger against the greenback and the much better than expected jobs numbers played a big role in cementing the gains. AUD/USD bottomed out at around $0.7550 and it has been a very good run since then. The pair managed to break a downtrend that’s been in place since October last year and is now trading a touch above the $0.7800 handle. News of China’s RRR cut has prompted some of the risk currencies a bit higher in Asia but the move hasn’t been replicated by equities due to regulatory tightening. Local investors increasingly feel the RBA is not in a rush to ease again and this is playing into the hands of the AUD. On the calendar this week, we have RBA Governor Glen Stevens speaking in the US and this will be followed up by monetary policy meeting minutes. Remember, these minutes are from the April meeting where the RBA surprisingly kept rates on hold. This is likely to throw the AUD around a bit. On Wednesday, we receive CPI data. There is potential for the AUD to extend its gains to $0.7938, which is where the March highs kick in. While the pair is showing signs of indecision at the moment, I would be sceptical about shorting at these levels due to upside risk in data and stimulus action from China.


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