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FX snapshot – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

We are awaiting potential bearish breakdowns for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY which are showing signs of weakness. Meanwhile AUD/USD is on the cusp of a multi-year low, yet which way will it go?

GBP/USD
Source: Bloomberg

Will EUR/USD break lower once more?
EUR/USD has been selling off sharply, with price dropping out of a rising channel that has been in play overnight. Given that we have seen this pair seemingly top off from $1.0944 resistance to fall back into the descending channel that has dominated the past month, there is good reason to believe we could see further downside.

The key to this would be a closed hourly candle below $1.0854, which would provide a bearish signal. An inability to do so could see the pair push back towards $1.0890. Thus, $1.0854 is crucial here, where a close below this level would provide a bearish view, with support levels $1.0834, $1.0808 and $1.0805 coming into view.

Resistance levels of note are $1.0890, $1.0904 and $1.0944.

EUR/USD

GBP/USD selling emphasis weakens
GBP/USD downtrend appears to have come to a halt – for now at least. The 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) continues to provide us with good resistance to the upside, yet the gradually higher lows now provides us with a symmetrical triangle to keep an eye out for.

Ultimately, for a bullish view to come into play, we would need to see a closed hourly candle above $1.4445. Until that happens, any upside is likely to be capped at either trendline or moving average resistance. For this downtrend to continue, the bearish signal we are looking out for is an hourly close below Tuesday’s low of $1.4352.

Resistance levels of note are $1.4445, $1.4476 and $1.4556, with support levels at $1.4360 and $1.4352.

GBP/USD

USD/JPY resurgence could be over
USD/JPY is selling off this morning, following on from a failure swing in price, which fell short of the Y118.38 high on Tuesday. This provides a somewhat bearish tone, which would be confirmed by a closed hourly candle below Y117.29. Should price manage to hold up above this level, then we could see another bounce to continue this consolidation.

However, a close below Y117.29 would provide the bearish signal and would subsequently point towards a continuation of the downtrend with Y116.97 and crucially Y116.21 in view.

Resistance levels of note are Y118.06, Y118.38 and Y118.86.

USD/JPY

AUD/USD back to major historical support level
The AUD/USD rally has fallen at the first hurdle, with the downtrend coming back into play over the past two days. Crucially, price has sold off down to the $0.6908 historical support level today. This is the September 2015 low, where a break below this level will create a new six-year low for the pair.

People like to trade such an important level in different ways. One such technique is to await a break and a pullback to the $0.6908 level to then see it form new resistance. Alternately looking out for short-term intraday patterns that indicate a possible bullish reversal could also work. Either way, it is clear this pair is on the cusp of creating a major multi-year low and as such volatility is expected to come into play as we either see a breakout or rejection.

Resistance levels of note are $0.6938, $0.6963, $0.6979 and $0.7000. Below $0.6908, support levels are difficult to ascertain given the long-term nature of price action at such levels. 

AUD/USD

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