Levels to watch: gold, silver and crude

Silver leads gold, while WTI points towards possible Brent selling.

Silver bars
Source: Bloomberg

Bulls bid gold back into range following brief selloff

The selloff seen earlier this week appears to be coming to an end, with the price looking to close above the $1178 resistance today. As such, I would be looking for a move back to $1178 as a good buying opportunity. The 50-period SMA (four hour) appears to be providing near-term resistance, just as the 20 SMA provided support and thus we could see a little downside in the early part of today’s session. However, as long as the price holds up above $1178, we are likely to resolve this short-term range to the upside rather than the downside. 

Spot Gold chart

Double bottom forming in silver following trendline support

Ultimately the question of which was right between the bullish silver outlook and bearish gold outlook went the way of silver, with a bounce from the bottom of the symmetrical triangle. There is a clear likeliness of a double-bottom formation here with the neckline at $16.20. 

An intraday close above $16.20 would bring expectations of a spike higher towards the top end of the triangle (currently $16.36) followed by $16.46 (double-bottom projection). However, until we break above $16.20, there is a possibility of a continuation of the consolidation we have seen and thus a move back towards $16. Any such move would be a good chance to buy in at a better price, as long as we remain above the bottom of the triangle (currently $15.92).

Spot Silver chart

Brent spike breaks above resistance but could see some sellers come back in soon

On the face of it, the 50% retracement may have been the full move lower for Brent, with recent bullish momentum pushing price action into a new higher high above $65.84. We will need a higher low too, and given the substantial move over recent days I would not be surprised to see some of the heat ease off with a pullback in the coming days. The $65.84 level will be key to that, and a move below this level would likely instigate a strong move lower. That being said, while the price remains above that support level, we could see a move higher.

The MACD and stochastic point towards a push lower, and I do think we will likely see that move below $65.84 to instigate a fall in Brent, but I will withhold my bearish view until that happens. 

Brent chart

WTI approaches key resistance zone, with possible implications for Brent

Much like Brent, WTI has been surging higher in recent days, yet the signs are pointing towards a possible move lower in the near future as we approach the descending trendline (currently $61.30) and horizontal resistance level at $61.57. Like Brent, I think we could see some selling come into play soon, but with WTI it is a lot clearer exactly where those levels of resistance stand. Consequently, I am bearish as long as the price remains below the triangle between the descending trendline and horizontal resistance.

WTI chart

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