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Levels to watch: gold, silver and crude

Crude continues to look toppy following a failure to create a new high and the precious metals begin to turn following recent strength.
Oil barrels
Source: Bloomberg

Gold evening star points to move lower
Yesterday’s doji candle showed a clear inability to capitalise on the gains that saw a new three-month intraday high created. The initial selling seen today has brought gold's price back below the crucial $1224 support level. Should we fail to see any strong resurgence in the later part of today, then a bearish evening star reversal formation will be created.

With that in mind, I am bearish while price remains below $1224. This would likely see gold return to its consolidation mindset which saw price consistently gravitate towards the $1178 mark.

Silver pulling back following triangle breakout
Wednesday’s breakout from a symmetrical triangle formation provided a bullish outlook for silver, which has played out well. However, today’s early selloff is looking likely to create a bearish engulfing pattern which is also joined by a break into lower lows on the intraday charts. As such, it looks like we will be moving into a retracement phase which brings a bearish countertrend mentality.

That being said, I am not looking to sell into this market, instead I’m hoping to find a better price to buy at the bottom of this retracement. Thus I expect a move lower and am looking for signs of intraday support to come in to give me a long entry. One such possible place could be the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $17.01, followed by the 1 May swing high – $16.77.

Brent continues to show signs of a top
The sell off in brent crude appears to be continuing today, with the price currently resting on the support level of $65.36. I am a bear in the medium-term and do think we have topped out at $70 for now.

Thus, a move below $65.36 will be crucial for the next leg lower following the recent mini-revival last week. Should we see a move below $65.36, then I would expect us to see a move towards $64.23. Otherwise, any bounce higher would be an opportunity to sell at a better price.

WTI attempting to create new low
Unlike brent, light crude hasn’t created a new lower low to match the lower high and that is what we are seeing attempted now with a push to break below $59.32. That level represents both the 14/15 May lows and 100-hour SMA.

If we do see a move below that level, I would expect to see us move towards the next support level at $58.14. Ultimately, much like brent I see us moving lower in light crude and thus I am looking for a move lower towards $58.14 and $55.73 in the coming week.

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