Levels to watch: gold, silver and crude

Markets are likely to take their directional bias from today’s release of US non-farm payrolls. 

Gold bars
Source: Bloomberg

Gold poised ahead of NFP data

Gold prices are trading at $1,265, down 0.02% at the Friday open in London, rallying off an overnight low of $1,256 to a daily high of $1,268. The pair tested topside resistance and failed. The yellow metal is likely to be relatively rangebound throughout the London session ahead of the release of non-farm payrolls data, scheduled for 1.30pm (London time). 

Expectations are for a decline to 234,000 from its previous level of 252,000. Should expectations be missed then it’s likely that topside resistance, currently trading at gold’s 100-hour moving average, will be retested. If broken it could lead the way to its 200-hour moving average at $1,273. However, should the non-farms number beat expectations then demand for gold is likely to thin which could see downside support of $1,263 retested, and if breached will bring $1,251 into play.

Silver remains in bearish trend

Silver is trading at $17.25, up 0.09% so far during the London open session on Friday. The directional bias in silver is going to be largely driven by today’s release of the non-farm payrolls data. Should expectations of 234,000 be beaten we could see a continuation in silver’s short-term bearish trend, which could see a re-testing of downside support at $17.11.

If this is broken it is likely to bring $16.91 back into play. However, should the data miss expectations then a move higher to test the 200-H MA is likely. In order to confirm a bullish bias, a sustained move above the 50- and 100-H MA will need to be seen.

Brent forming a double top

Brent prices are trading at $58.64, up 3.12% so far during the London open session in which price action is retesting Tuesday’s high of $58.98. If broken we could see a move higher toward $60.69, currently supported by its relative strength index which is trading at 67.

A positive reading in today’s non-farm payrolls is likely to add further bullish support. Brent’s RSI is in danger of moving into oversold territory, which if achieved is likely to result in a short-term pullback and could see a retesting of previous support which remains at $57.21. Should downside support be broken then the next clear target is placed at the 50-H MA at $56.12.

WTI targets weekly highs

WTI prices are trading at $52.27, adding 1.91% at the London open session having touched an overnight low of $47.38. The current bullish trend is likely to aim at a double top, which would need to retest Tuesday’s high of $54.26 – a move supported by a reading of 64 in its RSI.

However, should today’s non-farms number fail to meet market expectations then a retesting of downside support at $51.28 is likely to be seen. If broken we could see a move lower to $49.39.

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