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Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver and crude

Gold has begun to slip lower again, while silver has found some support. In oil there seems to be a lack of fundamental catalysts to drive the price higher.

Gold bars
Source: Bloomberg

Gold looks to test 200-DMA

Although off the lows seen yesterday, the slip below the 50-day moving average for gold still suggests the selling is continuing. Clues to this can be found in the relative strength index and moving average convergence/divergence, both of which are continuing to decline. We are now looking to another test of the 200-DMA, which held yesterday. If this level is breached then $1280 may provide support, and then beyond that we are looking at a move towards $1260.

A close back above the all-important $1300 level would be needed to suggest the selling in gold has come to an end, ideally with a turnaround in the RSI too.

Silver eyes 50-DMA to take market higher

A bounce from the 200-DMA could be in progress for silver, but it looks as if this level is holding for now. The best hope is for the rising 50-DMA to carry the market higher, since it will be a significant task for silver to retake the losses suffered yesterday. Any drop through the 200-DMA would suggest a push towards $20, the major support zone from March/April.

Brent could break $108

An attempt to break above $108 was beaten back yesterday but $107 is holding for now. Brent finds itself in some kind of purgatory between these two levels. On the hourly chart a loss of $107 would open the way to a test of the 15 July lows around $105.80 - $106. However, a rising intraday RSI and MACD suggest another attempt to break towards the 200-period MA around $107.50.

NYMEX could shift back towards $100

On an hourly chart NYMEX continues to be supported by the 200-period MA, with intraday momentum indicators pointing higher and suggesting further possible upside.

$102 does appear to be holding, but a close above the 20-DMA is the real sign that is needed before we can expect a rise back in the direction of $103. If $102 fails to hold up the price then the outlook shifts back towards another test of the $100 level.

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