Telstra share price continues to drop as TPG merger decision looms

An approximate date range has now been set for Justice Middleton to hand down a decision on whether the TPG-Vodafone merger will be allowed to go ahead.

The proposed A$15 billion TPG-Vodafone merger may just represent one of the most important legal cases in Australia this year.

After all, if Justice Middleton, the man currently overseeing the case was to overturn the ACCC’s initial decision to block the TPG-Vodafone merger, the consequence would be the creation of a third mobile player in Australia; one that has the potential to compete with the likes of Optus and Telstra.

Indeed, Justice Middleton himself said that the TPG-Vodafone merger would likely have ‘considerable implications for the Australian telecoms industry at all levels.’

With that in mind and probably to the relief of many shareholders across Australia and abroad, is the fact that the court case looks to be drawing to a close.

On this front, Justice Middleton commented that he will attempt to deliver a decision by the end of 2019, though he qualified such a statement by saying that realistically a decision was unlikely to be handed down until before February 2020, reported the AFR.

The comments noted above ultimately align with the picture painted by Morgan Stanley last month, where the investment bank argued that if the TPG-Vodafone merger was approved, Telstra’s mobile subscriber growth could be curtailed and the company’s average revenue per user potentially impacted.

By comparison, a protracted court case or a flat out rejection of the merger would likely prove beneficial to Telstra suggests Morgan Stanley, as it gives the blue-chip telco additional room to build leadership in the 5G arena.

While not a ‘winner takes all’ game by any means, the stakes remain decisively high.

Telstra and TPG share price action

The Telstra (ASX: TLS) share price has fallen more than 10% since its August peak – though its shares still sit a significant 26% higher than they did at the beginning of 2019. Today, the Telstra share price closed just 0.28% lower.

It's uncertain how much of this price action is a result of speculation concerning the possible outcome of the merger court case or other factors, such as Telstra previously updating its FY20 guidance figures.

On the other hand, the TPG (ASX: TPM) share price may have received a slight boost since court proceedings commenced in early September, with its stock rallying around 10% since September 3.

Tellingly though, recent price movements would suggest that such optimism around a potentially clear-cut outcome has moderated somewhat, as uncertainty around the outcome of the merger case grows.

The TPG share price dropped more sharply than Telstra today, falling 2.54%.


This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Seize a share opportunity today

Go long or short on thousands of international stocks.

  • Increase your market exposure with leverage
  • Get spreads from just 0.1% on major global shares
  • Trade CFDs straight into order books with direct market access

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices
Sell
Buy
Change
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Sell
Buy
Change
Sell
Buy
Change
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Friday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.

All trading involves risk and losses can exceed deposits. Trading CFDs may not be suitable for everyone so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. All trading involves risk and losses can exceed deposits.