Technicals conflicted for oil and gold
Short-term volatility picks up for both, but Weekly oil price movement still relatively rangebound.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Volatility may have subsided at the end of last week for gold prices, but the three consecutive days of drops at the start of it meant conformist breakouts to the downside outperformed with a break in its previous Weekly 1st Support level, and a slight rebound off of its 2nd Support. On the Daily, late last week there was little movement and remained within its key short-term levels. As bad a week as it may have been for gold, it was a brutal one for silver with double-digit percentage losses. That meant the gold/silver ratio finished the week higher, from 72 at the start to 81 by the end. Negative rate talk out of central banks hasn't subsided, but sell everything moments have favored the dollar in a flight not to safety but liquidity.
IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Gold
Meanwhile, CoT speculators have dropped out of extreme buy territory with a reduction in longs by 15,497 lots and a simultaneous rise in shorts by 6,420 lots, and are now in percentage terms below that of retail traders.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
A conflicting consolidatory Weekly technical overview and a volatile Daily technical overview rarely persists for long, one or the other eventually shifting, but it goes to show the oscillations over the past months that have stayed largely within its key levels in clear contrast with short-term volatility that has spiked a bit and offered more pivot point plays. oil prices recovered off of last week's 1st Support level to aid long-term conformist reversals, and on the Daily late last week the move above its 1st Resistance offered some for short-term conformist breakouts. In oil data, Baker Hughes oil rig count for the US rose from 179 to 183, a small increase and well below the 600+ figures we'd gotten used to prior to the pandemic, with Devon Energy and WPX reportedly in talks to merge.
IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Oil WTI
A larger drop in shorts has taken CoT buy bias back into extreme territory, while retail traders are little changed for the week holding a more moderate majority long sentiment.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
** CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.
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