Silver and gold oscillate at relative lows, oil rebounds slightly

Retail long bias drops in gold and oil, but traders large and small remain heavy long in all three.

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Despite a surprise surge in equities aiding risk appetite running contrast to coronavirus fears and the dollar outperforming, gold prices managed to hold its ground at the lows in a relatively consolidatory session, but where further 'risk-on' moves in the financial markets could send further flows towards riskier assets and away from safe haven products like this precious metal. From a technical standpoint, while its bull trend line has been broken on the daily (the weekly overview remains a stalling bull trend for the time being), a couple of its main technical indicators continue to flash green. However, more fundamental news awaits, and this time it’s the US dollar as a factor given tomorrow's NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) release.

IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold

From a sentiment standpoint, retail long bias has dropped 5% to a heavy long 70%, though could rise again if gold prices drop further and shorts get enticed into closing out.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Gold has been the relative underperformer as of late when viewed in context with silver, but yesterday’s consolidatory session for both has done little to shift the gold/silver ratio. As it stands, silver's technical overview has remained relatively more consolidatory and rangebound compared to gold (or even oil), even if its ADX (Average Directional Index) is showing an ongoing propensity to trend. Its price briefly crossed both the 100-day and 50-day moving averages which are closely huddled together and on the verge of crossing themselves, but its price has (for now) failed to close below it.

IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

With risk appetite improving in equities (even if coronavirus fears haven't faded), oil prices managed to rebound slightly off the lows, and where EIA's (Energy Information Administration) latest figure regarding US oil inventories showed a 3.4M surplus. This was following API's 4.2M surplus prior. On the OPEC+ front, they have yet to deliver a response as meetings continue and should anything emerge on that front and we can expect further volatility even if its main technical indicators are showing a bear trend given that negative technical bias was buoyed by fundamental factors that could be at risk of reversing.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

The price increase has aided extreme long retail traders who were holding an 88% long bias yesterday. However, the bias has dropped by only 1% as the bulk of those longs have been initiated at higher price levels and in need of a larger move back up.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

* The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%.

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