CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure. CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure.

RBA Preview: what to expect from this month’s RBA meeting

The RBA will meet on Tuesday, October the 6th at 2.30PM.

The economic data that matters:

GDP (YoY)

Unemployment Rate

Wages Growth (YoY)

CPI (YoY)

Retail Sales (YoY)

-6.3%%

6.8%

1.8%

-0.3%

7.1%

What are the key themes to watch out of this RBA meeting?

Will the RBA adjust policy?

Coming into the RBA meeting, the simple question is whether the central bank will choose to ease policy, or not. In the past fortnight, signaling from the RBA, signs of a faltering economic recovery, and some predictions from high-profile pundits have led the market to price-in a better than even chance that the RBA will cut rates at this meeting. Interest rate futures are pricing in slightly greater than 5 basis points of a possible 15 basis point cut from the RBA, while the bond market is implying 10 basis points of a possible 15 basis points of cuts to the central bank’s yield curve control target.

What could the RBA do to ease policy?

While the market has generally settled on the notion the RBA will cut the cash rate and yield curve control target, as its desired means of easing monetary policy conditions, there are questions surrounding what else of what more the RBA could do with policy settings. The RBA has recently thrown water on the notion of negative interest rates and currency intervention, questioning their long-term efficacy. Calls for a more traditional quantitative easing program, or perhaps yield targets further along the yield curve remain prevalent. However, the RBA has largely stayed reticent on both policies.

What's the outlook for the Australian economy?

If the RBA cuts rates at this meeting, the central bank is expected to justify the move on the basis of a slower recovery in the Australian economy. Although the RBA has stated that the economic downturn from the Covid-19 pandemic wasn’t as severe as the first forecast, the recovery is unfolding at a rate slower than initially expected, in large part due to a slower rebound in global growth, and Victoria’s recent lockdowns. A weaker economic outlook is likely to be delivered from the RBA going forward, leaving the door open for further policy support in the future.

How could the RBA meeting impact the financial markets?

This RBA meeting will be a high-impact one for the markets, given the ambivalence about whether the central bank will ease policy implied in rates markets. A rate cut will be a big tailwind for risk assets, especially domestic focused stocks within the ASX200. Australian bonds would also stand to rally, while the AUD/USD would be set for a fall. The reverse would be true if the RBA holds off on cutting at this meeting. The consequent jump in bond yields, along with the Australian Dollar, would be a hit to sentiment, with the ASX200 likely to tumble on such a move.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD promises volatility around this month’s RBA meeting. The split in market pricing means the pair will have to choose a direction, reflecting the central bank’s decision. The question will be how long any RBA-inspired move in the currency happens to last. Less a reflection of local monetary policy lately, the AUD/USD has traded more on a combination of Dollar strength, iron ore prices and broader market sentiment. The AUD/USD has traded in a tight correlation with S&P500 futures, with that trend likely to persist, even if the RBA eases policy.


This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Be ready to act on ECB opportunities

Learn how the ECB’s monetary policy announcements affect interest rates and price stability ahead of its next meeting in 22 April 2021.

  • How might the next meeting affect the markets?
  • What are the key rate decisions to watch?
  • Why is the Governing Council announcement important for traders?

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices
liveprices.javascriptrequired
liveprices.javascriptrequired
liveprices.javascriptrequired

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Friday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.