CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure. CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure.

Breather for Asia markets

A mixed commencement look set to be the case for Asia markets with the region caught between anticipating the prospect of rate cuts from the upcoming Fed meeting and US-China trade tensions.

Talking up the G20 stakes for US-China relations

The macro backdrop was little changed for Wall Street overnight seeing markets waiting for direction from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week and weighing the tariffs threats from President Donald Trump. The notable new development had been the raising of stakes for the G20 meeting. President Donald Trump on Tuesday was seen brandishing the trade deal covering terms negotiated earlier in the year which he is demanding China to return to. As Bloomberg reported, White House Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney had perhaps best described the situation suggesting that the Meixco tariffs conclusion had now emboldened the President. Furthermore, the meeting would be an opportunity to resume talks than to see a deal come through as we have suggested yesterday.

Wall Street broadly concluded little changed seeing the Dow and the S&P 500 index ending near neutral despite a positive start. The S&P 500 index can be seen briefly testing the 2900 level but was sold down once again against the backdrop of trade uncertainty to continue with what could be a rangebound trend until greater clarity can be sought.

Source: IG Charts

US CPI watch

Against the current backdrop, some of the recent questions that were posed are as follows.

  1. Could the markets be pricing in the chance of a Fed rate cut too early?
  2. Can US-China trade tensions further escalate?

The probability of both the abovementioned questions currently point to a yes, but amid the uncertainty particularly with regards to the latter trade item, the Fed may be compelled to move and that will be the big question going into the week ahead.

The US dollar index can be seen repeatedly testing the uptrend support as the market contemplates the prospects of a rate cut. Watch the US CPI data release this week among other updates including retail sales and industrial production. Unless we see a significant surprise from the 0.2% month-on-month consensus, expect the market to largely trudge along awaiting the Fed’s guidance next week. A miss here could be one to increase the expectations for a rate cut and see prices dip past support.

Source: IG Charts

Asia open

Asia markets are due for a breather alongside the US into this midweek trading day with the lack of fresh drivers. While regional markets saw the boost on Tuesday from China’s support towards infrastructure investment, this may be exhausted into Wednesday to find regional markets trading alongside to their own tune. As mentioned above, watch the US CPI data, but prior to which, China’s May CPI and PPI numbers will be released. In particular, look out for the PPI trend after China’s trade data surprised on Monday for any market repercussions.

Yesterday: S&P 500 -0.03%; DJIA -0.05%; DAX +0.92%; FTSE +0.31%

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

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