​​​​​US jobs report preview: will NFP follow ADP rise?​​​​​

Friday’s US jobs report is expected to bring another decline in the payrolls figure, but will we see the dollar rise once again after a recent pullback?

The September US jobs report released on Friday provides traders with a fresh opportunity to scrutinise the economic recovery after months of improvements that have followed the first quarter (Q1) economic collapse.

Coming at a time when we have seen a resurgence for the dollar, the jobs report will be released at 1.30pm on Friday 2 October.

Tune in to IGTV live announcement and analysis this Friday at 1.25pm UK time on the IG platform.

Will improved ADP helps lift sentiment

The September Automatic Data Processing (ADP) payrolls figure released today has seen another month of improvement, with a figure of 749,000 representing the highest amount of job creation in three months.

That rise can be specifically attributed to small and medium sized businesses, with hiring at large firms remaining largely steady. Unfortunately, markets are expecting the headline non-farm payrolls figure to move in the opposite direction, with a reading around 900,000 expected after last months 1.37 million figure seen last month.

With the monthly jobs created moving lower, there is a fear that we could soon see that path of economic improvement take a negative turn. As things stand, that steady improvement seen over recent months remains on track, with the four-month decline in continuing claims pointing towards further reductions in the unemployment rate.

Market forecasts point towards a reduction in the headline unemployment rate from 8.4% to 8.2%. However, one potential warning sign looks like it could come from the U6 unemployment rate, which also includes both workers who are no longer looking for employment, and part-time workers looking for a full-time job. With more comprehensive measure expected to rise to 15.4% from 14.2%, this month could see the first cracks appear in the recovery.

Dollar index technical analysis

Looking at the dollar index, we have seen the greenback drift lower following a bullish breakout last week. The wider downtrend remains intact, yet we have seen a clear bottoming out over the course of August and September.

The rise through 93.64 brought about a bullish signal, with the weakness we have seen since Friday's peak providing a potential buying opportunity. As such, further upside looks likely before long, with a drop below 92.75 negating that bullish outlook. Until then, a bullish turn looks like for the dollar.


This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Seize your opportunity

Deal on the world’s stock indices today.

  • Trade on rising or falling markets
  • Get one-point spreads on the FTSE 100
  • Unrivalled 24-hour pricing

See opportunity on an index?

Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re on to something.

  • Log in to your demo
  • Try a risk-free trade
  • See whether your hunch pays off

See opportunity on an index?

Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.

  • Get spreads from one point on the FTSE 100
  • Trade more 24-hour indices than any other provider
  • Analyse and deal seamlessly on smart, fast charts

See opportunity on an index?

Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices
Sell
Buy
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Sell
Buy
-
-
-
-
-
-

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Friday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.