Week commencing 1 June 2026
Global markets head into a data‑heavy week, with US payrolls and inflation readings set to shape the outlook for interest rates and growth.
Wall Street eyes fresh highs
United States (US) equity markets are set to finish the week at fresh record highs, supported by strong gains in technology stocks and optimism around a potential 60‑day ceasefire extension between the US and Iran.
As May draws to a close, the S&P 500 is up a robust 4.92% for the month, extending April’s 10.42% advance. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq 100 has surged 10.10%, building on its impressive 15.15% gain in April. The Dow Jones has added around 1021 points (+2.06%), following its 3310‑point surge the previous month.
The week that was: highlights
- US gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter (Q1) was revised lower to 1.6% annualised from 2.0%, signalling a slowdown in momentum
- April core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation came in at 0.2% month‑on‑month (MoM), keeping the year‑on‑year (YoY) rate at 3.3%, in line with expectations
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending 23 May rose by 5000 to 215,000
- The Conference Board consumer confidence index eased to 93.1 in May, though it remained above expectations of 92
- China’s (CN) foreign direct investment contracted 10.3% year‑to‑date in April, a steeper decline than the 6.8% forecast
- Japan’s (JP) industrial production rose 0.8% in April, while retail sales jumped 2.1% YoY
- Eurozone economic sentiment rose to 93.5 in May from 93.2
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell 9.00% to $87.90
- The US dollar index (DXY) fell 0.31% to 99.00
- Bitcoin fell 4.21% to $73,736
- Gold fell 0.33% to $4494
- The volatility index (VIX) fell to 15.73 from 16.71 the previous week.
Key dates for the week ahead
China & Japan
- CN – RatingDog manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI): Monday, 1 June at 9.45am SGT
- CN – RatingDog services PMI: Wednesday, 3 June at 9.45am SGT
United States
- US – ISM manufacturing PMI and employment: Monday, 1 June at 10.00pm SGT
- US – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings: Tuesday, 2 June at 10.00pm SGT
- US – ADP employment change: Wednesday, 3 June at 8.15pm SGT
- US – ISM services PMI and factory orders: Wednesday, 3 June at 10.00pm SGT
- US – Initial jobless claims: Thursday, 4 June at 8.30pm SGT
- US – Non‑farm payrolls: Friday, 5 June at 8.30pm SGT
Europe & United Kingdom
- EA – Unemployment rate: Monday, 1 June at 5.00pm SGT
- EA – Inflation rate flash: Tuesday, 2 June at 5.00pm SGT
- EA – Retail sales: Thursday, 4 June at 5.00pm SGT
- UK – Halifax house price index: Friday, 5 June at 2.00pm SGT
Key events for the week ahead
CN: RatingDog manufacturing PMI
Date: Monday, 1 June at 9.45am SGT
Last month’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.2 in April, its strongest reading since December 2020 and well above expectations. The survey showed broad‑based gains in output and new orders, with input price pressures also picking up.
Monday’s flash reading for May will provide a gauge of whether China’s manufacturing momentum is holding or beginning to fade. Consensus expectations are for a decline to 51.3.
A result in line with expectations would support the view that the Chinese economy is stabilising, while a print below 50 would raise fresh concerns about the durability of the recovery and the effectiveness of recent policy support.
China RatingDog manufacturing PMI chart
EA: Inflation rate flash
Date: Tuesday, 2 June at 5.00pm SGT
In April, eurozone headline inflation rose to 3.0% YoY from 2.6% in March, surprising to the upside and marking the highest reading in several months. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, eased slightly to 2.2% – the lowest rate since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Tuesday’s reading will be closely watched for signs of whether the recent energy‑driven increase is broadening across the economy. Markets expect headline inflation to rise further to around 3.3%, with the core measure also forecast to tick up to 2.4%.
The European rates market is currently pricing around 60 basis points (bp) of European Central Bank (ECB) tightening for 2026, with the first 25 bp move expected in June, followed by another 25 bp increase in October.
Euro area core inflation chart
US: Non‑farm payrolls
Date: Friday, 5 June at 8.30pm SGT
Last month, US non‑farm payrolls rose 115,000 in April, following an upwardly revised 185,000 gain in March and above the 62,000 consensus forecast. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM, keeping the annual pace around 3.7%.
After recent volatility in labour market data and the divided tone at the late‑April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Friday’s May jobs report will be closely watched for further insight into labour market conditions. Consensus expects an increase of around 93,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.3%.
A stronger‑than‑expected result would reinforce the resilience of the US labour market, while a weaker outcome or rising unemployment would raise concerns against the backdrop of higher energy prices and persistent inflation.
The US rates market is currently pricing around 15 bp of tightening by December, with a full 25 bp rate hike priced for March 2027.
US unemployment rate chart
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