US jobs report preview: will NFP follow underwhelming ADP release?​​​​​

Friday’s US jobs report could bring a bearish reversal for the dollar despite the ongoing bid to claw back jobs lost in March and April.

The August US jobs report released on Friday provides traders with another opportunity to take a close look at the ongoing economic recovery following the economic collapse that took hold in the first half (H1) of 2020. Capping off the week, the jobs report will be released at 1.30pm on Friday 4 September.

ADP weakness could spell trouble for headline NFP number

The US jobs outlook has been showing signs of gradual improvements over the course of the past few months, with the height of the crisis seemingly having occurred in April. However, we are reaching a period where that recovery appears to be slowing somewhat, with the payrolls figure decreasing over the past two months. The automatic data processing (ADP) payrolls figure highlights the potential for further disappointment on Friday, with another underwhelming figure this week (428K) highlighting the lack of follow through on this recovery.

Looking at the jobless claims data, we have seen the initial filings decline once again, following a tentative push higher in mid-August. However, while we are moving in the right direction once again, this is a sign we are seeing some bumps in the road as the US economy attempts to recover from the 22.2 million jobs lost in March and April. So far less than half of those losses (42%) have been regained.

Markets are expecting to see a decrease in the number of jobs created, with a figure of 1.49 million well below the 1.76 million seen in July. However, it is worthwhile noting that the rate of improvement was always likely to slow after initial gains made as the economy first turned a corner. Nevertheless, the economic picture is still improving, as highlighted by the unemployment rate which is expected to break below the 10% threshold for the first time since April. Despite last months decline, it is important to follow the participation rate, with a recovery in that rate telling a story of how people are feeling confident enough to return to the workplace. Finally, with average hourly earnings expected to fall from 4.8% to 4.6%, we are seeing a signal that those lower paid jobs (often in the services sector) are returning after the initial lockdown shock.

Dollar index technical analysis

Looking at the dollar index, we have seen huge declines for the greenback over the course of this crisis. The past month has seen a more balanced market, although we have maintained the bearish theme. With the price on the rise over the course of September thus far, there is a chance we could see another move lower given the confluence of trendline and 76.4% Fibonacci resistance up ahead. With that in mind, it will be worth watching for a sign of a bearish reversal from here, with a break through 93.50 ultimately required to bring about a fresh bullish outlook.

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.

Please see important Research Disclaimer.

Be ready to act on the next non-farm payrolls report

Explore the influence the non-farm payrolls report has on American markets ahead of the next release on 2 July 2021.

  • Which markets could be more volatile after the NFP report?

  • Why was the report introduced and what does it tell us?

  • Why is the report important for traders?

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.


Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 20 mins.

The Momentum Report

Get the week’s momentum report sent directly to your inbox every Monday for FREE. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming key events to monitor in the coming week, as well as commentary and insight from our expert analysts on the major indices to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.