The trade: key resistance levels in focus for Nasdaq & ASX 200

(AI video summary)

This video was created on 30 April for IG audiences by ausbiz.

Nasdaq continues climbing a wall of worry

The US Tech 100 has been showing resilience despite ongoing economic concerns, gaining 0.6% in recent trading. This upward momentum comes amid softening rhetoric around tariffs and optimism surrounding potential trade deals.

The technicals indicate that the US Tech 100 and other US stock indices are continuing to climb a wall of worry. Concerns persist about softening economic data, though similar patterns occurred in late 2022 when soft data weakened but hard economic data did not confirm this trend.

The index is approaching a critical technical barrier at its 200-day moving average (MA), which sits around 20,200. This level is likely to limit further upside until economic conditions become clearer, either through hard data confirming economic softening or meaningful tariff reductions. The current technical setup suggests the US Tech 100 may grind another 1-2% higher, but appears to be setting up for a period of consolidation or range trading in the near term.

ASX 200 approaches key resistance after strong recovery

The Australia 200 has mounted an impressive recovery, recently breaking through the psychologically important 8000 level and approaching 8100 points. This represents a significant rebound from its recent low of 7169 - a recovery of nearly 1000 points.

The strong run has investors who may have missed the sell-off now looking to allocate capital to the market. Month-end flows are also providing support, as this typically represents a strong period for markets along with the first few days of a new month. However, like the US Tech 100, the Australia 200 is approaching its 200-day MA around 8150, which may serve as resistance. Technical analysis suggests limited upside from current levels without additional evidence of weakening economic data or continued tariff reductions.

The index could potentially push toward 8200, slightly above the 200-day MA, but a pullback toward 7700 wouldn't be surprising as part of a consolidation phase after such a strong rally.

Australian dollar eyes CPI data and key resistance level

The Australian dollar has gained approximately 2% this month, showing strength despite various headwinds. With Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due for release, the trimmed mean measure - closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) - could fall back within the target band of 2-3% for the first time in several years.

This development would potentially give the RBA flexibility to cut interest rates in the coming weeks, an important consideration for currency traders.

For further upside, the Australian dollar needs to break above its 200-day MA, which sits around 0.6465. It recently approached this level, reaching approximately 0.6450, but encountered selling pressure near the resistance.

A sustained break above this key technical level would likely trigger increased buying from momentum-focused accounts and model-driven traders who had been short the currency. Asset allocators who make decisions based on the 200-day MA would also potentially increase exposure, potentially driving the Australian dollar toward 0.68.

Crude oil faces continued pressure after 15.5% monthly decline

Crude oil as experienced a challenging month, declining approximately 15.5% amid concerns about tariffs slowing global growth and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) potentially increasing supply.

Multiple headwinds continue to pressure prices, and while crude oil remains below resistance in the $65-67 range, a retest of the $55 low appears increasingly likely without unforeseen supportive developments.

Bitcoin consolidates gains with positive technical outlook

Bitcoin has had a solid month and is currently consolidating its recent gains. The technical picture remains constructive as long as it maintains support above its 200-day MA and the mid-$70,000s level.

Technical analysis suggests potential for Bitcoin to retest its $110,000 high and potentially extend toward the $120,000-125,000 range if market conditions remain favourable. Bitcoin's notable stability during recent market volatility following "Liberation Day" demonstrates strength that bodes well for continued upward momentum, provided that volatility in risk assets continues to ease.