Oil price takes a breather, Gold and Natural Gas regain losses
Although geopolitical tensions have decreased, they've not entirely dissipated, meaning that the concerns that drove the oil price up might resurge.
Natural Gas: Mid-term momentum stays positive
Natural Gas prices moved higher for the fourth straight day and continued to regain the loss from the slide since early February. Up to Thursday, the price has pushed through former resistance from the January high and left the 20 and 50-days’ moving average in the rear mirror. The 100-day’s moving average will be the imminent resistance level to challenge in the next couple of days, which, if broken through successfully, will see the price of Natural Gas advance towards the recent high at 5230.02 and challenge the November high.
Medium-term momentum is poised to stay positive with two emerging signs. First, the RSI trend line is moving towards the overbought territory at around 60 level and second, the low of each pull-back since December has printed an ascending trend line, manifesting the market’s appetite for dip-buying.
Oil: Time to take a breather
The Russia-Ukraine tension has fuelled the Oil - Brent Crude up approximately 7% in the past two weeks and 23% higher since the start of 2022. As a result, mid-week news that the Russian troops move from the Ukrainian border served to quench some of the concern and pulled back the high-flying oil price to take a breather.
The Brent Crude price fell substantially from $95.75 early this week to land on $91.23 by the time of writing. The 20-day’s moving average is the most notably support at the moment, while the 50 and 100-days’ moving average is still a distance behind. The RSI has reached its lowest level since early January showing the cooling down of the overheat momentum for the past weeks.
Looking ahead, although the geopolitical tensions have decreased, they've not entirely dissipated, meaning that the supply concerns that drove the oil price up might resurge in the next couple of days or weeks. Hence, it might be far too early to say that the oil price has reached its peak, especially considering the price still stays firmly above all its major moving averages from a technical point of view.
Gold: Climb towards one-year-high
The price of Spot Gold has erased all the losses from the early week’s tumble and regained its forward-moving pace.
The next upside barrier can be found from November’s high of $1,871, above which doors will reopen for a new upswing towards the twelve-month peak. Bulls await the next entry if the price retreats are looking to the nearest support at $1,848, which is the most notable rooftop in January and near the lower boundary of the moving channel. In addition, the RSI is stepping closer to the overbought territory to suggest a near-term breather should be on the cards.
From a mid-term perspective, an ascending trend line connected by the lows since September 2021 (refer to weekly chart) show the momentum for the precious metal is expected to stay in favour of long buyers.
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