Australia 200 afternoon report: 19 June 2025

The Australia 200 trades 5 points (0.05%) higher at 8535 as of 2.05pm AEST.

Australia 200 holds steady amid global uncertainty

The Australia (ASX) 200 has remained within a holding pattern for the fourth session this week, as traders await clarity on whether the next stage of the Israel-Iran conflict will prompt United States (US) military intervention or lead to peace talks. This period of uncertainty coincides with Wall Street closing flat overnight ahead of the Juneteenth public holiday.

Currently, the Australia 200 has traded within a narrow 75-point (0.87%) range this week, significantly below the 165-point (2%) range observed over the past nine weeks. Even a surprising fall in employment figures from today’s labour force report failed to ignite the market. 

Labour market cooling and RBA outlook

Employment in Australia fell by 2500 jobs in May, well below the expected gain of 22,500. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% as the participation rate eased to 67% from 67.1%.

The fall in employment in May follows an outsized rise of 89,000 in April, suggesting some payback has occurred this month. Despite the slight drop in the participation rate, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% for the third consecutive month and for four out of the five months in 2025.

Today's numbers indicate that the labour market is gradually cooling. Inflation has returned to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band and increasing downside risks to global growth from tariffs and Middle Eastern geopolitical uncertainty are also becoming evident.

We expect the RBA to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) to 3.60% at its meeting in July. The gains in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as financials, real estate, and consumer-facing stocks suggest market alignment with this expectation.

Australia 200 stocks

Financial sector

• Westpac Banking Corporation surged 2.06% to $33.69
• National Australia Bank gained 1.3% to $39.24
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia rose 1.3% to $182.49
• Australia and New Zealand Banking Group added 0.4% to $29.16
• Macquarie Group lifted 0.35% to $213.38.

Real estate sector

• Region Group climbed 2.1% to $2.42
• GPT Group advanced 1.9% to $5.05
• Scentre Group added 1.8% to $3.67
• Charter Hall rose 1.65% to $19.37.

Consumer discretionary sector

• Aristocrat Leisure gained 1.77% to $66.87
• Temple & Webster rose 0.8% to $22.03
• Treasury Wine Estates lifted 0.56% to $8.08
• Adairs edged 0.2% higher to $2.68.

Technology sector

• WiseTech Global dipped 2.1% to $106.64 as directors Charles Gibbon and Michael Gregg announced their departures without explanation.

Mining sector

Major miners fell as iron ore  traded at $92.50, near its lowest level in nine months following soft economic data from China earlier in the week.

• Rio Tinto dropped 2.47% to $103.41, approaching April’s low of $103.12
• Mineral Resources fell 2.26% to $22.08
• BHP Group declined 2.03% to $36.11
• Fortescue Metals Group slid 1.66% to $14.77.

Transport sector

• Transport company Kelsian Group surged 10.50% to A$3.58 on reports of Transport for New South Wales extending its bus services contract for Sydney’s inner west. 

Retail sector

• Kathmandu Holdings, an outdoor adventure clothing company, fell 3.77% to $0.26 after warning of lower financial year (FY) 2025 earnings due to challenging sales conditions.

Australia 200 technical analysis

Last week, after the Australia 200 reached a new record high, the relative strength index (RSI) showed overbought conditions, evident since December 2023 and followed by a 4% pullback. We also saw a 'loss of momentum' daily candle, indicative of potential market turning points.

Looking ahead, a sustained break of support at 8500 could indicate a medium-term top at the 8639 high, signalling a deeper pullback with the 200-day moving average at 8200 as the initial target. Until then, the index may extend its gains towards 8800.

Australia 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of  18 June 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}