Oil set to rise?

In recent weeks, we’ve seen the price of oil rise on the back of unrest in Libya, Egypt and increasing violence in Iraq, raising concern over potential supply constraints.

Additionally, economic news originating from the two largest consumers of oil across the globe (China and the US) has indicated that the current level of demand for the commodity is likely to continue, if not even increase. Despite a slight miss on estimates yesterday, Chinese GDP figures are looking relatively stable with yesterday’s figures providing further evidence of a softer landing in the world’s fastest growing economy. The country also processed Brent Crude at the fastest pace in four months over June, increasing demand by 11% to ten million barrels a day, a total of 39.6 metric tons in the month.

On the US front, the Federal Reserve Bank is expected to maintain record low interest rates and continue its stimulus programme for the rest of 2013.

In summary, the impact of tensions in the middle east has been lessened by the fundamental demand that is underpinning the oil price. The annual increase of northern hemisphere demand will also be a factor as China and US slowly move towards the winter months. 

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