Market Navigator: Nvidia earnings, Jackson Hole and gold's test – week of 24 Aug 2026

Last week's recap: US yields surge on fiscal concerns, China data disappoints and BoJ edges towards a hike

• Treasury yields surge on fiscal concerns: The 30-year US treasury yield hit 5.34%, its highest since 2007, while the 10-year rose to 4.75% as US national debt breached $40 trillion. Treasury Secretary Bessent pledged to double the long-dated buyback programme to US$4 billion, but the relief proved short-lived. The US Dollar index fell to 98.7 on renewed debasement fears.
• China's data disappoints across the board: Industrial production and retail sales missed forecasts in July, while fixed asset investment contracted 6.7% year-on-year (YoY), the steepest decline since April 2020. Property, manufacturing and infrastructure investment all deepened their slumps, underscoring persistent domestic weakness.
• US-Canada trade talks collapse: Talks between Washington and Ottawa broke down, prompting 50% US tariffs on roughly US$20 billion of Canadian goods, including dairy, alcohol and cement. Canada vowed to match tariffs dollar-for-dollar from 8 September, escalating tensions despite earlier tariff-reduction offers on steel, aluminium and autos.
• Japan's inflation edges the BoJ closer to a hike: Core consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.8% YoY in July, up from June's 1.6%, though the increase remains dampened by government fuel subsidies. With energy prices climbing for the first time since November 2025, markets price a 68% chance for Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise rates to 1.25% in September.

Markets in focus: US equities retreat while gold reclaims $4,600 on interest rate volatility

US equities retreat as health care gains fail to offset tech declines

US equities snapped a three-week winning streak as surging long-term yields pressured growth stocks, while unresolved Middle East tensions and the resurgence of US-Canada trade friction compounded the cautious mood. The S&P 500 fell 1.4%, the Dow Jones dropped 0.8%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 declined 2.4%.

Healthcare led gains, with Moderna surging 129.2% and Merck rising 12.3% after the pair announced that their personalised mRNA cancer vaccine, used alongside Merck's Keytruda, significantly reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence and spread in a late-stage trial — a result researchers described as a landmark validation of mRNA technology beyond infectious disease.

Semiconductors led losses as investors grew increasingly concerned over the sustainability of AI-related capital expenditure amid a rising interest rate environment. Seagate plunged 12.7% as investors booked profits following an extraordinary year-to-date run, a decline compounded by sustained insider selling from senior executives. Intel fell 12.1%, while Nvidia declined 4.6% ahead of its earnings release.

Walmart shares fell 10.0% after US comparable sales growth of 2.6% missed the 3.5% consensus, its slowest pace of growth in years, as management flagged price cuts to defend market share — an outlook that overshadowed better-than-expected headline earnings and raised full-year guidance.

The rejection at 30,244 confirms that the US Tech 100 index remains subject to the mildly downward resistance trend line established in June. The recent golden cross formation between the 20-day and 50-day moving average (MA) may provide positive momentum for the index to re-test this resistance level. Failure to do so could bring the index towards the 28,200 – 28,500 support zone. It remains critical for the US Tech 100 to hold above 27,230, near the 200-day MA, to sustain the medium-term uptrend.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index daily price chart

Gold reclaims $4,600 as debasement trade returns

Gold surged over 4% to climb above US$4,600 per ounce last week, as the 'debasement trade' narrative resurfaced amid mounting concern over the sustainability of US fiscal policy. With elevated Treasury debt levels stoking fears over the government's ability to service its obligations without eroding currency value, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation.

A recent report by the World Gold Council argues that the Treasury's expanded buyback programme may represent a step towards yield curve control (YCC), whereby the Federal Reserve (Fed) would intervene directly to cap longer-term yields rather than relying on rate cuts. Such a shift would be structurally supportive for gold, as suppressing nominal yields through direct intervention, rather than allowing market-driven price discovery, undermines confidence in fiat currency stability and lowers real yields in a high-inflation environment.

Other catalysts remain supportive. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows are on track for a seventh consecutive week of net inflows, according to World Gold Council data. Central bank buying also recovered sharply in the second quarter, rebounding from a soft first quarter that had been dragged down by heavy selling from Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan. Poland, Uzbekistan and China have meanwhile continued adding to reserves, with China's second-quarter purchase marking its largest quarterly addition since the fourth quarter of 2023.

Reclaiming the 200-day MA marks a significant technical breakthrough. If gold sustains above this level, it may signal an end to the bearish trend and pave the way for a recovery towards the next resistance level between $4,780 and $4,880. That said, traders should be wary of a technical pullback as the relative strength index (RSI) approaches 70 — the overbought threshold. The previous pivot level at around $4,450 should provide immediate support.

Figure 2: Spot gold daily price chart

The week ahead: Jackson Hole, inflation data and Nvidia earnings

This week's economic calendar centres on inflation data and two pivotal policy gatherings that could recalibrate rate expectations on both sides of the Pacific.

In the US, Wednesday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — is expected to accelerate to 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) from 0.1% in June.<!-- FLAG: "Fed" is used here without a prior full expansion of "Federal Reserve" within this H2 section (the earlier expansion appears only in "Markets in focus," a different H2). Per house style, this may need "the Federal Reserve's (Fed)" on first use here — flagging for Output 1 review rather than editing wording in this file. --> This comes despite early signs that inflationary pressures may be moderating, with July's consumer price index (CPI) showing a slight deceleration and retail sales growth slowing, suggesting consumer demand could be cooling. A stronger-than-expected print would boost the odds of a September hike, currently priced at 40% ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, where central bank leaders convene. Fed Chair Warsh's Friday speech will be scrutinised for fresh policy signals.

Meanwhile, Australia's July inflation data, also due Wednesday, is expected to ease to 3.2% year-on-year (YoY) from 3.8%, a cooling that would support the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) case for holding rates unchanged.

Separately, China's National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) convenes from Tuesday to Friday, with draft revisions to the Enterprise Bankruptcy Law and the banking industry supervision law among the bills under review — developments worth monitoring for their potential implications for the financial regulatory landscape.

On earnings, Nvidia's Wednesday results will set the tone for technology sentiment, with the AI chip giant's earnings expected to almost double. Meanwhile, Salesforce and Zoom's results will reveal how enterprise software vendors are navigating competitive pressure from artificial intelligence disruption. In China, PDD and Meituan's results should offer insight into consumer resilience amid intensifying price competition and margin compression.

Figure 3: US inflation data

Key macro events this week: US and Australia inflation data coincides with Jackson Hole Symposium

(All times in GMT+8)

Tuesday 25 August 2026

• 9.30am — Australia RBA meeting minutes
• China National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) meeting

Wednesday 26 August 2026

• 9.30am — Australia inflation rate YoY (July): previous 3.8%, consensus 3.2%
• 9.30am — Australia RBA trimmed mean CPI YoY (July): previous 3.6%, consensus 3.5%
• 8.30pm — US core PCE price index MoM (July): previous 0.1%, consensus 0.2%
• 8.30pm — US durable goods orders MoM (July): previous 0.3%, consensus 0.7%
• 8.30pm — US GDP growth rate QoQ 2nd est (Q2): previous 2.1%, consensus 1.5%
• 8.30pm — US personal income MoM (July): previous 0.2%, consensus 0.3%
• 8.30pm — US personal spending MoM (July): previous 0.3%, consensus 0.2%
• China National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) meeting

Thursday 27 August 2026

• China National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) meeting
• US Jackson Hole Symposium

Friday 28 August 2026

• 1.00pm — Japan consumer confidence (August): previous 34.9
• 10.00pm — US Fed Chair Warsh speech
• 10.00pm — US non-farm payrolls annual revision preliminary
• China National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) meeting
• US Jackson Hole Symposium

Saturday 29 August 2026

• US Jackson Hole Symposium

Key corporate earnings: NVIDIA and software players report

(In local exchange time)

Monday 24 August 2026

•  PDD

Tuesday 25 August 2026

• WuXi Biologics
• Laopu Gold
• Zoom

Wednesday 26 August 2026

• MiniMax
• NVIDIA
• CrowdStrike
• Salesforce

Thursday 27 August 2026

• Marvell

Friday 28 August 2026

• Meituan
• BYD

_{Source: Trading Economics, Nasdaq, LSEG (as of 23 August 2026)}