USD/TRY forecast to rise further despite hitting record highs

USD/TRY forecast to continue its uptrend, with fears of sanctions and a balance of payments crisis looming for the Turkish lira.

Erdogan dares West to implement sanctions

Relations between the West and Turkey have taken a step back over the weekend, with Erdogan stating that French President Emmanuel Macron needed a ‘mental check’ after vowing to protect Frances secularism against radical Islam.

Coming off the back of the shocking murder of a teacher who had shown controversial cartoons to his students, Erdogan has stoked relations between the two states by accusing Macron of targeting Islamic religion.

Unfortunately, the breakdown between France and Turkey has also expanded further, with the US warning of a credible threat of terrorism to its Istanbul embassy. With the US criticising Turkey for its role in purchasing the Russian-made S-400 air defense system, and supplying Azerbaijani forces in their battle with Armenia, Erdogan has dared US President Donald Trump to impose sanctions.

With Goldman Sachs estimating that Turkey has spent around $134 billion in just 18 months to support the lira, Moody’s has warned that the country had ‘almost depleted the buffers that would allow it stave off a potential balance-of-payments crisis’.

With Turkish relations with the West souring, and rising anxiety over the ability to support the lira, it comes as no surprise to see the bullish USD/TRY outlook remain in play.

USD/TRY forecast: uptrend likely to continue

USD/TRY has been trending higher for over a decade now, with the pair up over 460% over that 10 year period. While that may not be ideal for holders of Turkish assets, it does provide a remarkably consistent market for traders to be able to utilise. The latest rally through the 8 threshold comes off the back of a three-month period which has seen the pair rise 18%.

The four-hour chart highlights the latest breakdown towards the 61.8% Fibonacci support level, with the subsequent rally providing yet another high and eventual push through the 8 mark.

This uptrend looks highlight likely to continue given the wider decade-long bull market, with any short-term pullback likely to bring about a buying opportunity. As such, the bullish outlook holds unless we see a break back below the recent ₺7.7794 swing low.


This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Start trading forex today

Trade the largest and most volatile financial market in the world.

  • Spreads start at just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
  • Analyse market movements with our essential selection of charts
  • Speculate from a range of platforms, including on mobile

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices
liveprices.javascriptrequired
liveprices.javascriptrequired
liveprices.javascriptrequired

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.