The UK unemployment rate rises, but average hourly earnings remain elevated

US equity markets

US equity markets rose on Monday, led by tech stocks. Tesla shares rose 10% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the electric car maker to "overweight" from "equal-weight". Morgan Stanley thinks Tesla's Dojo supercomputer could boost the company's market value by nearly $600 billion.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index

Overnight, the session was mixed in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region. In Australia, consumer sentiment slipped further in September. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment dipped 1.5% in September from August to 79.7, a reading that showed pessimists again outnumbered optimists.

The index has been below the neutral 100 mark since March 2022. NAB business confidence rose 1 point to 2. Details of the survey show that business conditions rose to +13 in August from an upwardly revised +11 in July. Labour demand has remained strong, with a rise in labour costs of 3.2% in the past three months, easing a little from the previous reading of 3.7%.

The UK unemployment rate

As anticipated, the UK unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July. Average hourly earnings excluding bonuses rose 7.8%, unchanged from last month's data.

Bank of England

Yesterday, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said it was too soon for the BoE to stop raising interest rates. "I would rather err on the side of over-tightening. But if I am wrong and inflation decelerates more quickly and activity deteriorates more, significantly, I will not hesitate to cut rates.

Catherine Mann is considered the most hawkish member of the Monetary Policy Committee. Her latest comments contrast with Andrew Bailey's words last week. The Bank of English (BoE) Governor said the central bank was "much nearer" to ending its run of interest rate increases. The BoE is due to announce its next rate decision on Sept. 22. The market sees an 80% chance that it will raise rates to 5.5% from 5.25%.

ZEW economic sentiment

At 10 a.m. in Germany, ZEW economic sentiment is expected to fall to -15 in September, down from -12.3 in August. Oracle shares rose to a record in the immediate wake of earnings but then fell to close down 8.9% after the software giant projected current-quarter revenue below Wall Street. Street forecasts. Excluding items, earnings came in at $1.19 per share, compared with estimates of $1.15. Revenue for the first quarter stood at $12.50 billion.

Oracle

Oracle forecasts second-quarter revenue growth of between 5% and 7%. That's lower than analysts' average estimate of 8.2%. After a surge in cloud demand during the pandemic, the economic environment is now more difficult for Oracle, especially as it has to compete with much larger rivals like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft However, the development of Al applications boosts Oracle's cloud infrastructure business.

Larry Ellison highlighted that several development companies have signed contracts to purchase more than $4 billion of capacity in Oracle's Gen2 Cloud, a figure that doubled in the last three months.

Apple

Apple is expected to present its next generation of iPhones tonight. No major technological leap is expected, though, only improvements in chips, batteries, and cameras. Apple is expected to announce a new way to charge its iPhone 15 models, switching to the USB-C cable standard that is already on Mac computers and some iPad models. Will it be enough to revive sales and reverse the slowdown of the past three quarters?