SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and more: 2026's IPO deals reshaping markets

Global IPO market: record Q1 proceeds since 2022

The global initial public offering (IPO) market has opened 2026 with considerable momentum. According to KPMG, global IPO activity raised $42.6 billion across 251 transactions in the first quarter of 2026 — a 45% year-on-year (YoY) increase in proceeds, even as deal volume contracted 15% YoY. The divergence between rising capital raised and declining deal count reflects a structural shift towards fewer, larger-scale listings. The last time Q1 global proceeds exceeded this threshold was in 2022, when markets were still benefiting from the tail end of the post-pandemic listing boom.

Hong Kong led all exchanges, accounting for 35% of global proceeds — up sharply from 20% a year earlier — with US exchanges contributing a further 25%. Artificial intelligence (AI) and space technology are expected to define the remainder of the year, anchored by a cohort of US mega-listings that could fundamentally reshape the boundaries of public equity markets.

IPO candidates to watch in 2026: SpaceX, OpenAI and beyond

1. SpaceX

• Sector: Space technology / communications
• Estimated valuation: $1.75 trillion - $2.3 trillion
• Estimated listing window: As early as 12 June 2026; US

Founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, SpaceX currently encompasses three distinct business lines: Starlink satellite broadband, Falcon 9 rocket launch services, and xAI — the AI and social media division — following an all-stock merger completed in February 2026.

Starlink remains the sole profitable segment, generating $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025, with a subscriber base exceeding 10 million. However, xAI consumed approximately $14 billion in cash against just $3.2 billion in revenue, driving the combined entity to a net loss of $4.94 billion.

Reuters has previously reported the company is likely to target gross proceeds of approximately $75 billion — which would represent the largest amount raised in IPO history. Public investors are being asked to price three businesses with sharply divergent financial profiles simultaneously. Corporate governance presents a further complication: a dual-class share structure grants Musk near-absolute voting control irrespective of public shareholders' economic interest.

EchoStar, which received $11 billion in SpaceX shares in exchange for spectrum licences in late 2025, stands to be among the most direct beneficiaries — its SpaceX stake is estimated to exceed its own market capitalisation upon listing. Rocket Lab, the only listed pure-play launch vehicle competitor, faces the most concentrated downside risk: a SpaceX public filing disclosing Falcon 9's unit economics and market dominance would place direct pressure on its valuation multiple. Tesla, frequently traded as a Musk proxy, also faces rotation risk as investors gain direct SpaceX exposure.

2. OpenAI

• Sector: Artificial intelligence
• Estimated valuation: $850 billion - $1.1 trillion
• Estimated listing window: Q4 2026 at the earliest; US

As the company that ignited the generative AI cycle in late 2022, OpenAI is the developer of the GPT large language model (LLM) family and ChatGPT. The company reported annualised recurring revenue exceeding $20 billion for 2025, driven primarily by enterprise subscriptions and application programming interface (API) usage. It has raised approximately $180 billion in aggregate to date, with Microsoft and SoftBank among the key investors. OpenAI also serves as the operational lead for Stargate, a $500 billion joint venture targeting 10 gigawatts of AI data centre capacity across the US and internationally by 2029.

Cracks, however, emerged in April: ChatGPT stalled at approximately 900 million weekly active users — falling short of internal targets — while monthly revenue milestones have been missed on several occasions in 2026 as competition from Google and Anthropic intensifies.

Depending on the sequencing relative to Anthropic, OpenAI's debut may establish the first US benchmark for pure-play AI model valuations, with direct read-through to its infrastructure partners Nvidia, Oracle, and CoreWeave. Microsoft and SoftBank face a more ambiguous outcome — both hold stakes that will be marked-to-market upon listing, and the debut may prompt outflows from investors who have used either stock as an OpenAI proxy. SoftBank, which trades more explicitly as an AI holding vehicle, faces the greater rotation risk of the two. Traditional enterprise software companies may face further valuation pressure from the AI disruption narrative.

3. Anthropic

• Sector: Artificial intelligence
• Estimated valuation: $900 billion
• Estimated listing window: Q4 2026 at the earliest; US

Anthropic develops the Claude family of LLMs, with annualised revenue run rate expanding from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to over $30 billion in April 2026. Anthropic's target market differs materially from OpenAI's: its monthly active user base is significantly smaller (134 million versus 900 million), and approximately 80% of revenue is derived from enterprise customers — compared with roughly 40% for OpenAI. According to Counterpoint Research, Anthropic led global LLM revenue share in Q1 2026 with 31.4%, narrowly ahead of OpenAI at 29%.

Amazon and Google are the key strategic investors, with combined committed capital exceeding $70 billion across equity stakes and cloud infrastructure obligations — Amazon having deployed $13 billion in equity to date, while Alphabet currently holds a 14% equity stake contractually capped at 15%.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Anthropic projects breaking even by 2028 — two years ahead of OpenAI's 2030 profitability target — a distinction public market investors are likely to price as a premium.

A successful Anthropic IPO would crystallise gains for Amazon and Alphabet, both of which have been recording substantial mark-to-market gains on their positions. On the infrastructure side, Broadcom — which signed an agreement to supply Anthropic with 3.5 gigawatts of TPU capacity from 2027 — and Nvidia, Anthropic's primary GPU provider, stand as the most direct hardware beneficiaries.

The competitive dislocation is already visible: Anthropic's Claude Cowork and Claude Code products have triggered a broad repricing of enterprise software, with Salesforce and ServiceNow each losing approximately a third of their market value year-to-date, while Thomson Reuters, RELX, and FactSet bore the brunt of investor concerns over AI disruption to legal and financial data workflows. A public listing at a near-trillion-dollar valuation would likely entrench and accelerate that repricing.

4. Kunlunxin

• Sector: Semiconductor
• Estimated valuation: At least $14.7 billion
• Estimated listing window: Late Q2 or early Q3 2026; Hong Kong (dual STAR Market listing in parallel)

Kunlunxin is the AI chip subsidiary of Baidu, developing general-purpose AI accelerators for data centre inference and training workloads — positioning itself as China's domestic alternative to Nvidia following US export restrictions that have effectively excluded Nvidia's most advanced chips from the Chinese market. Baidu holds a 57.7% controlling stake.

According to investment materials reviewed by Reuters, Kunlunxin's revenue has been projected to exceed RMB 3.5 billion in 2025, with the company on track to reach breakeven. Over half of its sales are derived from external clients, including China Mobile.

Its listed peer Biren Technology — the first domestic GPU company to list in Hong Kong — is trading approximately 150% above its IPO price, providing a strong valuation tailwind for Kunlunxin's offering. However, Alibaba's chip unit T-Head is also pursuing a listing, introducing direct competition for investor capital and a potential valuation overhang.

A successful Kunlunxin debut would benefit Baidu directly through the mark-to-market appreciation of its controlling stake, and would provide a valuation benchmark for the broader domestic fabless chip sector. SMIC, the primary domestic foundry supplying Kunlunxin and its peers, stands to benefit from validated demand for domestically manufactured AI chips. Nvidia faces a modest negative impact, as a successful domestic listing reinforces the China supply-chain substitution narrative.

5. Shein

• Sector: Apparel
• Estimated valuation: $30 billion - $50 billion
• Estimated listing window: Subject to regulatory approval; Hong Kong

Shein is an online fast-fashion retailer serving over 150 countries, built around an AI-driven micro-batch manufacturing model. Founded in Nanjing and now headquartered in Singapore, the company pivoted to a Hong Kong listing after failing to secure approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for its earlier London plans.

The listing backdrop has grown more complex: the removal of the US de minimis tariff exemption in 2025 caused daily active users in the US to fall 25% in the months following the change, while the EU equivalent takes effect in July 2026 — adding cost headwinds across a second major market. Nevertheless, the profit growth seems resilient with net income guided at $2 billion for 2025, nearly double 2024 levels, as Shein passed tariff costs through to consumers and reduced marketing expenditure.

A listing would crystallise Shein's competitive threat in the public market, applying pressure to Inditex and H&M. The CSRC approval bottleneck remains the single most material execution risk; any further delay would push the listing into 2027 or beyond.

An IPO cycle without modern precedent

The scale of the anticipated US mega listings alone has no modern parallel. Based on an assumed 5% free float applied to the mid-point of reported valuation estimates, the combined fundraising from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic would approach $200 billion — exceeding total US IPO proceeds from listings with market capitalisations above $50 million between 2022 and Q1 2026 combined.

Proceeds from IPO deals over $50 million in the US

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are named advisers across multiple transactions; a full sweep of all three US listings within a single calendar year would represent the largest fee concentration in the history of equity capital markets. Nasdaq Inc. also stands to benefit directly — as the listing venue for all three mega-deals, it would collect listing fees on a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion, while index rebalancing triggered by their inclusion would drive sustained trading volumes.

Over the medium to long term, as pre-IPO lock-up periods expire and free float expands, passive market liquidity risk could emerge from index rebalancing. Passive funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 — including the $466 billion Invesco QQQ exchange traded fund (ETF) — would be required to reduce positions in current constituents to accommodate the new mega-cap entrants.

Beyond the US, HKEX stands to benefit from Kunlunxin and Shein reinforcing Hong Kong's position as the preferred listing venue for Chinese technology and consumer names.

Trading the IPO cycle: pre- and post-listing exposure

Investors can gain exposure to a highly anticipated listing before it begins trading through a grey market² — a pre-IPO instrument that allows traders to speculate on a company's expected market capitalisation at the close of its first trading day. A long position profits if the company's market capitalisation at the end of the first trading day exceeds the grey market price; a short position profits if it closes below it.

Once the company lists, the secondary market opens and shares may be made available on IG's platform for trading.

At IG International, both pre- and post-IPO exposure can only be accessed via contracts for difference (CFDs), which allow traders to speculate on price movements without owning the underlying shares directly.

SpaceX market capitalisation pre-IPO grey market pricing

OpenAI market capitalisation pre-IPO grey market pricing

¹ Based on an assumed 5% free float applied to the mid-point of reported valuation estimates

² IG does not offer grey markets on all IPOs.

The figures stated in this article are as of 20 May 2026 unless otherwise stated. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.