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Nasdaq 100, EUR/USD hover above support while WTI rallies
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 and EUR/USD as they hover above support while WTI is breaking through its January-to-February resistance line.
Macro update
S&P 500 rebounds on AI strength:
The S&P 500 index gained 0.56%, with the Nasdaq 100 up 0.76% and the Dow Jones rising 0.25%, as NVIDIA, Amazon and Microsoft led a recovery in technology shares after recent valuation jitters.
NVIDIA deal boosts sentiment:
NVIDIA advanced after unveiling a multi-year agreement to supply Meta with millions of artificial intelligence (AI) chips, lifting broader semiconductor and storage names tied to AI demand.
Software sector steadies:
The S&P 500 software and services index stabilised after earlier February losses, helped by[shares:CDN-US| Cadence] beating revenue forecasts, though Palo Alto Networks fell after cutting its full-year profit outlook.
Fed minutes curb rate-cut hopes:
Minutes from January’s meeting showed policymakers in no hurry to ease, with some open to further hikes if inflation stays elevated; markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a June cut.
Asia tracks Wall Street higher:
MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan rose 0.4%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.7% and South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 3% to a record, while European futures signalled a mixed open.
Oil extends rally on Iran tensions:
Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil pushed higher after surging more than 4% as investors weighed supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz, while gold held near $5000 and the dollar firmed alongside higher US yields.
Nasdaq 100 hovers above support
The Nasdaq 100 is seen recovering from this week's 24,387 low but has been capped by its January to February resistance line at 25,057. If overcome, last week's high at 25,382 may be back in the picture.
A slip through Wednesday's 24,387 low would push the November low at 23,854 to the fore.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 17 February 24,387 low.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 17 February low at 24,387; failure there would neutralise our outlook.
Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart
EUR/USD holds near support
EUR/USD is trying to level out above its early February $1.1766 low but remains under pressure.
Failure at $1.1766 may push the cross back towards the $1.1700 region.
Downside pressure should remain in play while the January-to-February downtrend line at $1.1871 caps.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 17 February $1.1898 high, targeting the $1.1700 region.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the $1.1573 January low.
EUR/USD daily candlestick chart
WTI rallies on heightened geopolitical tensions
WTI once again bounced off its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) $62.30 and is in the process of breaking through its January to February resistance line at $65.40, targeting the late January high at $66.48 and above.
Potential slips may find support around the 9 February high at $64.88.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 17 February $61.87 low.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 3 February low at $61.12.
WTI daily candlestick chart
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