Gold and silver technical outlook: gold softer ahead of Fed meeting
Risk of a minor pause in Gold’s rally, but the broader trend remains up; short-term range outlook for silver remains unchanged and what are the key levels to watch?
Gold technical outlook - bullish
Lower timeframe charts suggest gold’s near three-month rally is beginning to look a bit tired, pointing to the risk of a minor pause in the rally in the near term. However, the broader trend continues to be up.
Gold's downtrend has reversed from the end of last year. The break in December above the 200-day moving average reaffirms the near-term bullish bias.
IG Client Sentiment data shows 60% of traders are net-long gold with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.47 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8% lower from last week.
Narrative of the US Fed having to slow or stop rate hikes in the next few months has translated into weaker USD and a drop in US real yields, lending support to gold. Positioning data shows USD net longs have reduced significantly from mid-2022, while speculative long gold positioning is up since the end of 2022.
To be sure, there is no sign of reversal of the multi-week uptrend (refer to the previous article for more discussion on the trend). Even on the hourly and the four-hourly charts, XAU/USD hasn’t broken any meaningful support that could point to an imminent pause/minor retreat.
One such support is the mid-January low of 1896. Any break below could open the way toward the 30-day moving average (now at about 1878), with a fairly strong cushion around 1855 (including the 200-period moving average on the four-hourly chart).
XAU/USD four-hour chart
Beyond a few days, the yellow metal’s trend remains bullish after the grand reversal at the end of last year – from a downtrend channel to a rising channel (see the daily chart). The repeated breaks above key barriers, including the 200-day moving average, have confirmed that the interim trend remains up. Stiff resistance is at the April high of 1998, near the psychological 2000 mark.
XAU/USD weekly chart
Zooming out, from a multi-month perspective, XAU/USD remains in a broad sideway range of around 1650-2050. In this regard, the rebound last year from a vital floor on the 200-week moving average was an encouraging sign for bulls, keeping hopes alive that the uptrend from 2015 remains in force.
Silver technical outlook - neutral
Silver’s outlook remains unchanged from last week, that is, continuity of a range, with a possible minor downward bias over the next few days.
XAG/USD four-hour chart
As highlighted last week, XAG/USD is weighed by a tough ceiling on a downtrend line from 2021. Despite the sharp rally since the end of 2022, the 14-week Relative Strength Index remains capped at around 60 – similar to the previous two rallies in Silver in 2021 and 2022.
There is the immediate support on a horizontal trendline from last week at about 23.10. A break below could pave the way toward quite a solid floor at the mid-December low of 22.50, roughly the price objective of the sideways topping pattern (see four-hour chart).
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