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DAX 40 rallies off 10-month low as AUD/USD eyes multi-year high and copper price recovers
Technical analysis of the DAX 40 as it rallies off its 10-month low while AUD/USD eyes multi-year highs and the price of copper recovers.
Macro update
Asia rebounds after volatile session:
Regional equities rallied strongly, with MSCI Asia ex-Japan rising 2.6%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 3.6% and South Korea’s Kospi jumping as much as 6.4% as investors responded to signs that tensions in the Middle East could ease.
Oil plunges as war fears subside:
Brent crude oil dropped as much as 30% from overnight highs before stabilising near $95 a barrel, after surging above $100 on Monday, as Donald Trump said the conflict with Iran could be “over soon”.
Wall Street stages late recovery:
US equities reversed earlier declines to finish higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.83% and the Nasdaq 100 rising 1.38%, following Trump’s comments suggesting a shorter-than-feared war timeline.
Bond yields ease as panic fades:
US Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year yield near 4.11%, as the fall in oil prices reduced immediate inflation concerns.
Dollar weakens while gold advances:
The US dollar index slipped about 0.4%, while gold climbed towards $5175 an ounce as a softer dollar and easing energy prices supported bullion.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated:
Iran warned it could intensify missile strikes and threatened oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring ongoing volatility despite hopes of de-escalation.
DAX 40 bottoms out
The DAX 40 is rapidly regaining lost ground from Monday's 10-month low at 22,928 with the December 2025 trough at 23,434 being eyed. Further up beckons the 3 March low at 23,601. Next up is the 4 November low at 23,675.
Minor support is seen around the 1 August to 7 November lows at 23,4453 - 23,446.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above this week's low at 22,928.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral with a now bullish undertone while above the 9 March low at 22,928.
DAX 40 daily candlestick chart
AUD/USD is gunning for multi-year high
Over the past few days AUD/USD has been sideways trading below its mid-February $0.7147 multi-year high but above its early March $0.6945 low. While it continues to underpin, upside pressure is expected to remain in play.
A rise above the late February $0.7136 high is expected to push this year's peak at $0.7147 into play, followed by the January 2023 high at $0.7158.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above $0.6945, targeting the $0.7147 - $0.7158 area.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above $0.6897, eyeing the January 2023 peak at $0.7158.
AUD/USD daily candlestick chart
Copper price recovers
The price of copper is seen rising once more with the February to March downtrend line at $5.9830 within reach. If overcome, the 11 February high at $6.0873 may be reached next.
Minor support below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $5.9019 sits at the late January $5.8100 low.
Short-term outlook:
Neutral with a bullish stance, provided that this week's low at $5.6398 holds.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral while above support at $5.5950 - $5.5413 but below its late February $6.1413 peak.
Copper daily candlestick chart
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