Where to next for the oil and gold price amid the escalating Middle East crisis?​

​​​Escalating Middle East crisis sends shockwaves through markets 

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion,” a large-scale pre-emptive military strike targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and strategic military assets.

​The attack resulted in the deaths of several high-ranking Iranian military officials and marked one of the most direct confrontations between the two nations to date.  

​In immediate retaliation, Iran deployed over 100 armed drones toward Israeli territory, all of which were reportedly intercepted by Israel’s air defence systems.  

​The confrontation has led to a sharp escalation in regional instability, prompting the closure of Israeli airspace and flight restrictions across several neighbouring countries including Jordan, Iraq, and Iran. 

​The geopolitical shock has triggered significant market volatility

Brent crude oil prices surged by more than 12%, briefly surpassing $77.00 per barrel, as investors priced in the risk of further disruption to global oil flows, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supply.

​Simultaneously, gold prices rallied sharply, touching a near two-month high of $3,444.50 per troy ounce, as risk-averse investors sought safety in traditional haven assets amid fears of a broader conflict. 

Possible escalation scenarios 

​If the conflict widens, several escalation pathways could significantly impact global markets and regional stability: 

Iranian-backed militias in Lebanon, Syria, or Iraq could open new fronts against Israeli or US interests, dragging more actors into a multi-theatre confrontation. Most of these threats have been severely diminished by Israel’s large scale destruction of Hezbollah and incursion into Lebanon in 2024.

​Nevertheless, Iran might attempt to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially causing oil prices to spike dramatically and trigger a global energy crisis.

​Further Israeli precision strikes on Iranian territory and nuclear facilities are likely to prompt more direct Iranian missile retaliation, endangering key infrastructure and civilian populations.

​Cyber warfare and proxy attacks on energy installations in the Gulf states could further inflame the situation, impacting oil output and transportation.

​Markets remain on edge as diplomatic channels work frantically to prevent further escalation. Investors should brace for heightened volatility across commodities, equities, and currencies as the situation continues to evolve.

​WTI crude oil price technical analysis

​Since the beginning of June the oil price has risen by over 20%, by over 10% alone overnight, with an intraday high on WTI made at Friday’s $77.57 per barrel peak.

​As Israel managed to apparently shoot down all Iranian retaliatory missiles, the oil price stabilised around its late February and April highs at $73.11-to-$72.22 while awaiting news of probably military escalation.

​WTI crude oil daily candlestick chart 

​A rise above Friday’s $77.57 intraday high would likely push the August 2024 to January 2025 highs at $80.13-to-$80.73 to the fore.

​In case of more serious escalation and if a rise through the $80.13-to-$80.73 resistance area were to occur, the July 2024 peak at $84.49 may be reached as well. This would represent another 15% rise in the oil price from current elevated levels.

​WTI crude oil weekly candlestick chart 

​In case of de-escalation, the oil price is expected to give back some of its recent sharp gains and may slide back towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $68.47.

​The price of WTI crude oil is unlikely to retest its major previous resistance area, now because of inverse polarity a support zone, at $65.25-to-$63.86, though. It consists of the early March low and the late April-to-May highs.

​Technical analysis of the gold price

​The gold price’s third straight day of gains on escalating geopolitical tensions has briefly taken it to a near 3-month high at $3,444.50 per troy ounce on Friday morning amid flight-to-safety flows.

​The 6 May high at $3,435.00 currently caps renewed upside, though. Were it to be exceeded, gold’s all-time high at $3,500.00 would be back in the frame.

​Gold daily candlestick chart

​In case of a new record high being made the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the 200-to-2011 uptrend, projected higher from the 2015 low, at 3,753 would represent the next technical upside target.

​De-escalation may lead to the May-to-June uptrend line at $3,332.00 being revisited but only a fall through the 9 June low at $3,293.50 would void the recent advance in the gold price. 

The long-term uptrend in the gold price will remain valid while the May low at $3,121.00 holds.