2026 MARKET OUTLOOK

Outlook 2026: AI acceleration, central bank divergence and commodity trends shape trading opportunities

Markets enter 2026 with clear direction as AI investment accelerates, central banks diverge and commodities split. Analysis of opportunities across equities, currencies and digital assets.

Source: Adobe images

Written by

Fabien Yip

Market Analyst, IG

^{Published on: 15 December 2025}

Foreword

2025 saw early volatility but delivered strong overall momentum with clear direction: AI investment accelerating, central bank divergence deepening, and geopolitics reshaping capital flows. Entering 2026, the question isn't whether markets rise—it's which assets truly deliver on their promise.

US equities benefit from solid earnings growth and Fed easing, but investors should prepare for volatility's return—the calm won't last forever. Asian markets show stark divergence: China's tech innovation and policy support lift the China/ Hong Kong market, Japan's corporate reforms and fiscal stimulus back Japanese equities, while Australia remains constrained by limited growth-sector exposure.

Currency markets face central bank policy divergence, pressuring the dollar. Commodities split sharply: gold and silver gain from persistent central bank buying and structural demand, offering bullish prospects; oil faces supply-driven downside. Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture amid tightening supply and improving liquidity—poised either for renewed upside or an extended correction phase.

This report provides in-depth analysis of opportunities and risks across asset classes. Markets will always surprise us, but our commitment remains constant: delivering clear, actionable analysis when you need it most. Thank you for your continued trust and support.

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_{Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}

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^{This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.}

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