Day four: our potential gold trade

The move higher in gold seems to have run out of momentum.

Looking at the four-hour gold chart (as seen below), there are two strong trend lines drawn from the December 31 and early February lows. These supports come in at $1300 and $1327 respectively, so the bulls will want to see these levels supported.

If you look at the RSIs we are seeing lower highs, while price has been making higher highs, so this divergence could suggest a pullback or reversal is on the cards. The MACD is looking like it wants to push below zero and stochastic oscillators are painting a more bearish picture as well.

There still aren’t the conditions on any timeframe to suggest shorts with any convictions; however my bias in the short-term is for a modest move down to the uptrend. However unless we see better US data, rising US treasury yields and a higher US dollar gold downside seems fairly limited.


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