Day five: our potential gold trade

Gold found good buyers overnight as EUR/USD rallied hard after the ECB left policy unchanged.

In fact, EUR/USD has also broken and closed above the multi-year downtrend and looks strong right now.

If EUR/USD pushes up to 1.40 then this should support gold, however a weak US payrolls report tonight would see some of the goodwill towards EUR/USD and gold dissipate.

On the hourly chart (as seen below) gold is overbought and there seems good supply around the $1350 level. As we have seen on the daily chart there is negative divergence and it feels like gold wants to trade lower.

As I’ve said this week, the trend is still higher, so the downside seems fairly limited and traders have to be fairly nimble. A strong payrolls report is needed and as things stand the market is expecting 149,000 jobs to be created, with the economists range being 220,000 to 100,000.

Spot gold

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