Day 4: our USD/CHF trade

USD/CHF hit a high of 0.9175 yesterday on the back of confirmation that the US Senate has come to an agreement.

This will be voted on today and passed to the House to vote. Many are saying the re-opening of the government until January 15 is merely kicking the can down the road, and thus we will go through all this uncertainty again. However, on further investigation I am not so sure this is entirely correct.

The Democrats have picked out January 15 as a date to which the government will be funded, because it is the exact date that the second round of sequestration cuts (automatic spending cuts) kick in. This in theory should increase the probability that we don’t see another government shutdown, and to be honest, the ability of the Tea Party to hold the nation hostage using the threat of default as a weapon to kill off Obamacare failed miserably and smashed its image. Will they want to go through that again? I doubt it.

I still continue to advocate long positions on USD/CHF and as you can see from the chart, the pair is in a short-term channel and therefore higher levels should materialise. The top band of the Bollinger bands seems to be containing the move around 0.9150, as does the 38.2% retracement of the September to October sell-off. A close above here would see me add to my position.


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