Big day for Aussie dollar traders

Four markets in focus today: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, Apple and Macquarie.


It’s a big day for the AUD, with the March trade balance and the RBA meeting at 2:40pm (AEST) in play. The trade balance figure may provide some indication on how recent weakness in commodity prices affected terms of trade and subsequently exports. The RBA will likely leave rates on hold; however it’s the statement that traders are interested in. The bank will likely talk about the currency being at historically high levels, although no one is really expecting any major changes to its prior guidance. On Friday we get the RBA’s statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP), which may include tweaks to its inflation expectations. On the day I would look to sell AUD/USD on rallies to 0.9310, with a stop at 0.9460.


On the billing in European trade we get service sector data, while the OECD release its economic forecasts at 7pm AEST, which could potentially make headlines if we see material changes. In US trade we get trade data, with the market expecting a contraction in the deficit. A trade balance below $40 billion should put upside risks into EUR/USD, but with the ECB meeting traders will likely buy dips here in the pair, given the anticipation of limited action from the ECB at this meeting.


Apple closed above $600 for the first time since October 2010. The markets love affair with this tech giant is still not where it was in 2012, when it tested $700, however price action is still strong right now. The company may not be releasing products that traders feel will generate huge top line growth, but the targeted capital management and its recent sizeable bond issuance have caught the markets attention. Clearly investors should be very happy with its CFO.

Macquarie (MQG)

MQG is trading with real strength right now and momentum-focused traders should have this firmly on their radars. The stock is trading three standard deviations from its 20-day moving average, while the 9-day RSI is at 80, which is the highest it has been since September 2013. There is the prospect that the stock undergoes profit-taking given the stretched nature of the price action, but the daily chart is a thing of beauty right now and pullbacks will be supported.

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