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This did come to fruition, with USD/SGD staging a mini rally to 1.2665, before finding sellers on poor US data.
From a trend perspective I would be staying short on this pair, with bearish conditions seen on the daily and hourly chart. The weekly chart is turning more bearish, but I still want to see the MACD cross below the zero line.
A close below 1.2585 (the 38.2% retracement of the October to January rally) is needed for the pair to materially move lower, and over the past couple of weeks this retracement level has contained the downside.
I have pulled my stop loss lower to 1.2720, just above the February 10 high.